On this Pentecost Monday, the Paris Stock Exchange should open slightly higher, supported by a wind of optimism on the Asian markets and expectations of a relaxation of monetary policies. Meanwhile, gold and copper are reaching historic highs.
Apparent calm, but movements behind the scenes
Despite the absence of significant statistics on this public holiday, the CAC 40 should nibble a few points, driven by hopes of key rate cuts in Europe and the United States.
Asian markets are also moving into positive territory, reassured by the measures taken by China to resolve the difficulties in its real estate sector, even if their scale still raises questions.
The record reached on Friday by the Dow Jones index, which closed above 40,000 points, constitutes another supporting factor for the trend. Optimism about the easing of monetary policy by the American Federal Reserve (Fed) propelled the price of gold to an all-time high this morning.
“ We maintain our scenario that the Fed will cut its key rates by 50 basis points this year, with further cuts in 2025 and 2026“, underlines Solita Marcelli, strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Investors will carefully scrutinize the interventions of several Fed officials this week, including the highly anticipated one from Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday, who should speak specifically on the American economic outlook and the direction of monetary policy.
Copper soars, sign of booming demand
On the London Metal Exchange, copper futures jumped more than 4% at the start of the session, surpassing the $11,000 per tonne mark and setting a new record.
This metal, essential to the energy transition, amplifies a recovery that has lasted for months, fueled by fears of insufficient supply in the face of exploding demand, particularly in green industries such as electric vehicles and infrastructure. renewable energy.
Investors will also keep an eye on euro zone economic indicators, looking for signals supporting expectations of an ECB rate cut in June. The provisional results of the PMI surveys for Germany, France and the euro zone, expected on Thursday, will be closely monitored.
Although Pentecost Monday is generally calm on the statistics front, the Paris Stock Exchange should benefit from the positive momentum of Asian markets and expectations of monetary easing. The surge in gold and copper prices reflects strong demand and ongoing supply concerns, factors that are expected to continue to influence the trend in the coming sessions.
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