Polymarket is regaining ground after a long period of slowdown, as trading activity begins to rise again. User participation is also growing, driven by a renewed interest from both the crypto-native public and the general public. Recent data shows that the platform is approaching volumes recorded during peak activity surrounding the 2024 US elections.
In brief
- Weekly volume reached $961 million, with 247,000 active users, a sign of strong growth as activity now spreads across more varied prediction markets.
- Social media virality, wallet enhancements, and POLY token rewards have boosted user engagement around political and global events.
- A Columbia study reveals that as much as a quarter of volume could be wash trading, with some weeks reaching nearly 60% fictitious volume.
- Large wallet clusters and repetitive loops suggest attempts to manipulate rewards, but visibility and usage of the platform continues to grow.
Platform activity surges with 247,000 weekly users and volumes close to records
Polymarket recorded approximately $961 million in weekly volume, closing in on just over $1 billion reached during the November 2024 election week. This recovery follows a year spent rebuilding its user base after its most active prediction market closed on November 6, 2024.
Liquidity remains below peak levels, with around $248 million blocked compared to $375 million during election peaks. Activity has returned to a more stable pace and now extends to several marketsinstead of focusing on a single event.
More than 247,000 weekly active users have joined the platform, or around 72,000 per day, an increase of around 30% year-on-year. October volumes reached a record $4.1 billion, putting Polymarket just behind Kalshi ($4.4 billion).
This increased visibility boosted Polymarket's presence in Google searches related to polarizing topics, attracting a new wave of attention.
Social media craze fuels strongest user growth since 2024
News events have become a key driver of Polymarket's newfound growth. If sports had once been a temporary source of traffic, the recent rise now comes from politics and world news. A busy election year and overall uncertainty have reignited demand for real-time predictions.
Social networks have amplified this dynamic: certain markets that have gone viral have attracted thousands of new users. Simplified wallet integrations have also supported this trend, making it easier for beginners to get in. Non-election wallets increased from around 6,000 to over 27,000 in October, while total active wallets reached 84,000 at the end of October.
With this shift in traffic, trading became more evenly distributed among smaller positions. Small bets have increased, notably thanks to expectations surrounding the POLY token and its future airdrop, which will reward users based on their activity.
New reward programs for certain markets helped maintain engagement during quieter times. Interest in the POLY token has surged, with share of voice up 203% over the last month, positioning it as a major topic for early 2026.
Columbia study warns of widespread wash trading
However, a study from Columbia University, based on more than two years of on-chain data, highlighted persistent wash trading patterns having artificially inflated the volumes.
According to the researchers, almost a quarter of Polymarket's total activity could come from users repeatedly buying and reselling the same contracts. Some transactions would go through interconnected wallets, creating an illusion of increased demand.
Suspicious activity is said to have intensified during periods of high media attention. In December 2024, the fictitious volume would have represented almost 60% of weekly trading. The sports and election markets reportedly showed the highest concentrations of questionable transactions, with some weeks exceeding 90% activity considered inauthentic.
Beyond simple round-trip trading, the research highlights coordinated clusters of portfolios forming extended trading loops.
The researchers observed:
- Instant open-close trades leaving positions unchanged.
- Wallets interacting only with each other, within small groups.
- Large clusters creating repetitive loops.
- Contracts passing through dozens of accounts to simulate organic activity.
- USDC circulating between several wallets recycling the same funds.
One cluster comprised more than 43,000 wallets, generating nearly $1 million in volume, almost entirely suspected of wash trading. Many of these wallets showed no actual profits, suggesting that the primary motivation would be reward manipulation or future airdrops, rather than seeking market gains.
Despite these findings, Polymarket continues to see its engagement grow and its reach broaden. The increase in the number of users, the renewed interest in the news and the growing expectation around the POLY token place the platform in a favorable position as 2026 approaches.
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