Excluding BlackRock, bitcoin ETFs lost $93 million on October 1

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $292.5 million in net inflows during the first two sessions of October. The initial balance sheet of $134.4 million was incomplete, as it did not yet include the $158.2 million allocated to BlackRock’s IBIT fund on October 2.

Bitcoin ETFs start October with two positive sessions

Funds attracted $102.7 million on 1^er October, then $189.8 million the next day once data from all issuers is integrated. This second estimate replaces the provisional total of 31.7 million announced before the publication of the BlackRock feed.

The start of the month therefore reverses the movement observed during the last session of September. THE updated data allow us to summarize the sequence:

• $148.7 million was out by September 30;
• $102.7 million came in on October 1;
• $189.8 million was added on October 2;
• The total of the first two sessions reached 292.5 million;
• ETFs now show two consecutive days of inflows.

The $134.4 million figure came from adding Thursday’s $102.7 million and a partial Friday balance sheet of $31.7 million. This was not a calculation error, but a photograph taken before the data was received from IBIT.

This difference reminds us that daily flows can change several hours after the close. Some funds publish their creations and redemptions later than others, which makes the first reports provisional.

BlackRock still dominates Bitcoin ETF flows

The 1^er October, IBIT attracted $195.6 million. This collection offset outflows observed from several competitors, including 60.7 million for Fidelity’s fund and $31.4 million for Grayscale’s GBTC.

Bitwise lost $6.9 million, while ARK 21Shares, Invesco and VanEck also finished in the red. Conversely, Morgan Stanley’s fund received $7 million and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust received $14.6 million.

The October 2 session was much more concentrated. IBIT took in $158.2 million, Fidelity $29.3 million and Morgan Stanley $2.4 million. Other products did not record any significant net movement.

Over the two days, BlackRock therefore received $353.8 million. This amount exceeds the overall positive flow of 292.5 million, as part of IBIT’s subscriptions were used to offset withdrawals recorded in other ETFs.

This concentration qualifies the reading of the market. Investors are returning to Bitcoin ETFs, but they largely favor BlackRock’s product. The movement therefore does not reflect a uniform progression of all managers.

Jobs report supports bitcoin

The return of flows coincided with a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report. The United States economy created 29,000 jobs in September, compared to around 90,000 expected. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.

These figures reduced expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October. Lower, or simply stable, rates tend to improve the attractiveness of risky assets by reducing the return offered by bonds.

Bitcoin briefly rose above $87,000 after the release, before returning towards $85,000. This reaction shows that investors welcomed the slowdown in employment, without triggering a lasting break above the September peak.

ETF flows can support spot demand, as managers typically purchase bitcoin to cover the creation of new shares. However, they are not enough to explain the price alone, which also depends on the dollar, bond yields and positions on derivative markets.

ETFs are coming off a strong September

Bitcoin ETFs received around $2.65 billion in September, their best monthly haul in several months. A series of nine positive sessions, which began on September 17, had notably generated more than 3 billion dollars before the withdrawal on September 30.

The third quarter ended with nearly $6.34 billion in admissions. This collection allowed the 2026 flows to return slightly to the green, after a deficit close to 5.8 billion dollars observed in mid-July.

Positive start to October fuels the narrative “from Uptober”nickname given to the month due to the historical performance of bitcoin. “Traders currently believe that the upside potential exceeds the downside”said Stephen Wundke, director of strategy at Algoz.

This seasonality does not, however, constitute a forecast. The next test will come on October 14 with US inflation, then on October 28 with the Fed’s decision. The continuation of entries will depend as much on this data as on the favorable reputation of the month.