Bitcoin signed its best weekly close since January, around $86,530, before failing once again below the $87,000 zone. The rise in US bond yields and the decline in buying pressure are currently preventing the market from crossing its annual opening price.
In brief
- Bitcoin signs its best weekly close since January, around $86,530.
- The price once again fails below the key $87,000 zone.
- Buying pressure is slowing, while profit-taking remains high.
- US bond yields are holding back Bitcoin’s progress.
- The Fed and upcoming inflation data could determine the next trend.
Bitcoin price fails under major resistance
Bitcoin closed the week around $86,532 on Bitstamp, its highest weekly level since late January. It then approached $87,000 at the start of Monday’s Asian session before returning to around $86,000.
This attempt constitutes the fourth failure observed since September 21 in the same area. Several technical levels now govern the market:
- $87,570: bitcoin opening price in 2026;
- 87,363 dollars: peak recorded at the end of September;
- 86,700 dollars: immediate resistance followed by some analysts;
- 82,500 dollars: main support for consolidation;
- 79,500 dollars: 50, 100 and 200 day moving average zone.
The annual opening price represents significant psychological resistance. A lasting breakthrough would allow bitcoin to erase its decline since the start of the year. Conversely, a new failure could extend the consolidation between $82,500 and $87,000.
“Bitcoin remains stuck between key support at $82,500 and resistance near $86,700”, summary analyst Rekt Capital. This range will have to give way before a new short-term trend can take hold.
Bitcoin price still lacks aggressive buyers
On-chain data shows a moderation in buying pressure since the recovery that began in mid-September. The dominance of active buyers is diminishing, while long-term holders continue to profit around current levels.
“This behavior reflects a moderation of aggressive upward momentum, without signaling an immediate reversal of the trend or structural exhaustion”says Glassnode. This nuance remains important: buyers are slowing down, but the data does not yet confirm the start of a deep correction.
Bitcoin also retains most of its September gains despite still high profit taking. Sellers failed to provoke a sustainable return below $84,000, which maintains the recovery structure.
The derivatives markets, however, show a high concentration of liquidity around $83,700 and the annual level of $87,570. These areas can attract price when leveraged positions are liquidated.
A quick move above $87,000 could force short sellers to repurchase their positions. But, a drop towards 83,700 dollars would produce the opposite mechanism by weakening the most exposed bullish positions.
Bonds slow down the progression of the bitcoin price
The rebound in US bond yields accompanied the rejection below $87,000. The ten-year rate remains close to its highest levels since 2002, after a brief easing caused by disappointing employment figures.
High yields increase the appeal of bonds compared to bitcoin, which pays no interest or dividends. They also support the dollar, which can weigh on risky assets priced in the US currency.
The employment report had nevertheless offered temporary support to the market. The United States created only 29,000 jobs in September, compared to around 90,000 expected. These figures reduced expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October.
The favorable reaction did not last. Investors remain concerned about inflation and the bond market’s ability to absorb new US debt issues. An auction of ten-year securities, scheduled for this week, will give a new indication of demand.
The Fed could decide between buyers and sellers
The publication, on October 7, of the minutes of the September meeting of the Fed represents the next major meeting. Investors will be looking for clarity on the path of rates and what level the central bank considers neutral.
“The very unstable bond market makes the upcoming US data and the Fed’s communication particularly important”, estimate analysts at Deutsche Bank. According to them, these minutes will carry more weight than usual due to the recent rise in yields.
September US inflation will then be released on October 14. A higher-than-expected figure could revive the risk of monetary tightening and keep bitcoin below $87,570. Lower inflation would ease this pressure, without guaranteeing a breakout.
The weekly close therefore confirms an improvement in the market, but it does not yet validate a lasting recovery. Bitcoin must now transform the $87,000 zone into support, while retaining $82,500 in the event of a possible pullback.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
