Polymarket attracts millions of crypto traders, but the majority do not come out on top. Galaxy analyzed 2.9 million accounts considered private on the international platform. Result: 69.2% finish below their break-even point. Together, they have accumulated losses of $338.9 million. The automated accounts show $246.8 million in winnings.
In brief
- 69.2% of individual accounts studied by Galaxy end in loss.
- Their cumulative losses reach approximately $338.9 million.
- Automated accounts, on the contrary, gained nearly 246.8 million.
The majority of crypto traders end in the red
Galaxy relied on Polymarket’s public history: orders, positions, entry prices and payments being recorded on-chain, the study can follow activity over several years. The analysis includes approximately 2.9 million accounts whose behavior resembles that of human users.
Of this total, 69.2% are losers. This result extends an observation already observed earlier in the year. In April, another study devoted to Polymarket and Kalshi already showed that the majority of users were losing money.
Galaxy’s new research, however, provides an important nuance. The median loss remains low: around $3 per account. Half of traders are between a loss of $36.64 and a gain of just $0.40.
The 338.9 million are therefore not distributed evenly among users. A small part of the accounts concentrates the major damage. At the first percentile, losses reach approximately $4,804. At the other end, the 99th percentile shows around $3,381 in profit. Many lose little. Some lose a lot.
Bots earn $246.8 million
The contrast becomes much more visible when Galaxy isolates automated accounts. The study identifies 125,429. Together, they show approximately $246.8 million in profits. This category includes accounts used for market making, arbitrage or certain automated strategies.
Not all bots win, however. Galaxy notes that some of them carry out numerous operations to benefit from trading rewards.
The most sophisticated profiles nevertheless have different tools than those of an individual who simply chooses “Yes” or “No” on an event.
The market has become huge. In the second quarter, the notional volume of prediction markets reached $113.8 billion, up 48.7% over three months. Sports already represented 81% of Polymarket’s volume in June.
Galaxy finds precisely this domination in behavior. Traders specializing in sports are the least profitable among the major categories studied. Technology and science specialists achieve the best results.
Knowledge of the subject therefore seems to count. Around 44.1% of traders focus more than 60% of their activity on a single category. Another detail: profitable traders take slightly larger positions on average. Their median position reached $13.96, compared to $10 among losing accounts.
Polymarket always attracts more new users
These numbers come as prediction markets are no longer a fringe crypto product. Since its launch in 2020, Polymarket has recorded approximately 1.27 billion orders on 3.07 million wallets, for $82.8 billion in notional value according to Galaxy. However, the study focuses on the international platform, distinct from Polymarket’s American application.
New users also continue to arrive through major sporting events. During the World Cup, 60% of Polymarket users studied had never used crypto before. For many, the predictive market therefore becomes a first gateway to the ecosystem. Galaxy observes, however, that losing quickly pushes some users towards the exit. After a losing position, 15.2% of accounts made no new trades for the next 30 days. After a victory, only 6.1% of them stop for that long.
Winning makes you want to continue. Lose much less. The final conclusion remains quite simple. Polymarket can aggregate information and produce useful probabilities. This does not mean that its users make money. Out of 2.9 million individual accounts studied by Galaxy, nearly seven out of ten end up in the red. And while they accumulated $338.9 million in losses, the automated accounts posted $246.8 million in profits.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
