The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages of bitcoin are about to return to a fully bullish alignment for the first time since June 2025. The signal is not yet confirmed, however, and its history shows that it can precede both a strong advance and a quickly interrupted movement.
In brief
- Bitcoin is approaching a bullish alignment of its 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages.
- The crossing between the 100 and 200 day averages remains necessary to confirm the signal.
- This configuration differs from the classic “golden cross”.
- Historical precedents show very contrasting performances after this signal.
- The 50-day moving average near $79,500 is a key level to defend.
Bitcoin’s bullish signal remains to be confirmed
Bitcoin’s 50-day average price is already above its 100- and 200-day averages. A final crossover is now missing: the 100-day average must exceed the 200-day average to produce the expected alignment.
The three indicators are moving around very close levels, which can allow the signal to form quickly. Here is the configuration observed on October 5:
- 50-day moving average: approximately $79,495;
- 100-day moving average: approximately $79,493;
- 200-day moving average: approximately $79,539;
- The price of bitcoin: close to 86,000 dollars;
- The last comparable alignment: June 24, 2025.
The 100-day average therefore remains approximately $46 lower than the 200-day average. Maintaining the price above recent levels should gradually raise this intermediate average, but a correction may delay or prevent the crossover.
Vikram Subburaj, managing director of the Indian exchange Giottus explain :
This crossover would restore the order 50 days above 100 days, then 100 days above 200 days, for the first time since the previous alignment of June 24, 2025.
This bitcoin signal differs from the golden cross
This configuration should not be confused with the “golden cross” classic. The latter is formed when the 50-day moving average directly crosses the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin already produced this signal at the beginning of September.
The currently expected movement concerns the crossing of the 100 and 200 day averages. It would complete a structure in which the most recent average prices all lie above older trends.
Technical analysts generally interpret this order as confirmation of positive momentum across multiple horizons. Short-term, medium-term and long-term buyers then benefit from a progressively higher average price.
However, this signal remains delayed by nature. Moving averages are based on past prices. They therefore validate a trend that has already started instead of precisely announcing its starting point.
BTC rose more than 40% in the third quarter, going from its June lows to around $87,000. “The latest signal confirms that the recovery has held up”believes Vikram Subburaj. It does not, on its own, allow us to assess the remaining potential.
Previous alignments have produced opposite results
Certain historical episodes reinforce the bullish scenario. On October 27, 2020, bitcoin was worth around $13,600 when its three moving averages adopted this pattern. The signal remained active until May 2021, during which time the price exceeded $64,000.
Another alignment formed in early November 2023. It held until May 2024, while bitcoin rose from around $35,000 to $73,000.
More recent precedents, however, call for caution. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days, but the price only moved up from around $106,000 to $112,000. That of June 2024 only lasted twenty days before a drop close to 10%.
“The crossover reinforces the hypothesis of a trend, but it does not guarantee its continuation”warns the leader of Giottus. According to him, the behavior of the price after confirmation will allow us to know whether the structure becomes sustainable or remains a short-lived episode.
Bitcoin must above all defend its 50-day average
The real test will be around the 50-day moving average near $79,500. Bitcoin is still trading well above it, but this gap can quickly narrow during a correction.
A rebound on this average would show that buyers continue to defend the recent trend. A lasting break would, on the contrary, weaken the signal, even if the alignment of the three indicators were to be confirmed in the meantime.
In the shorter term, the price is still struggling to sustainably cross the $87,000 zone. The advance slowed as the U.S. dollar index strengthened, which typically puts pressure on dollar-quoted assets.
The market will also watch the Federal Reserve minutes on October 7, then US inflation on October 14. These events can cause bond yields to vary and interrupt a technically favorable setup. The future crossing would therefore confirm the solidity of the recovery initiated three months ago. It would constitute neither a guarantee of an increase nor an independent purchase signal.
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