International tax rules still see only a small portion of on-chain crypto activity. Chainalysis estimates potentially taxable flows observed in 2025 on six major blockchains to be at least $457 billion. The OECD CARF would only directly cover 14%. The remaining 86% goes through DeFi, transfers between individuals, staking or payments.
In brief
- Chainalysis estimates potentially taxable crypto activity of $457 billion in 2025.
- The CARF would only directly cover 14% of the on-chain flows studied.
- DEXs, P2P, staking and many payments remain largely outside the system.
Crypto is already worth $457 billion
The CARF is just starting to take shape in several countries. France, for example, is preparing the extension of DAC8 with the new international tax framework for cryptos. Chainalysis looked at what circulates directly on blockchains.
His estimate reaches $457 billion for 2025. The figure includes capital gains made, certain income from mining, staking or lending as well as payments made in crypto.
The United States comes in well ahead with $112.6 billion. The European Union totals 125.1 billion. France represents approximately 9.4 billion dollars, divided between 1.7 billion in income, 2.5 billion in winnings and 5.2 billion in payments.
Six networks are included in the calculation: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, BNB Smart Chain and Base. So part of the market is missing. Operations carried out within centralized exchanges do not appear in these 457 billion. Chainalysis therefore considers its estimate as a floor.
CARF mainly sees what goes through intermediaries
The Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework was created by the OECD to automate the exchange of tax information between countries. Dozens of jurisdictions are starting to collect data this year. The first international exchanges are due to arrive in 2027. France is one of the countries involved in the system, which had already brought together 47 states from its political launch.
The system works quite well when a user goes through an exchange or broker. These companies generally know the identities of their customers. They can record sales, purchases and transfers and then transmit this information to tax authorities.
The problem starts when activity leaves these platforms.
According to Chainalysis, only 14% of on-chain flows potentially taxable transactions studied correspond to transactions directly covered by the CARF. The remaining 86% includes trading on DEXs, peer-to-peer transfers, revenue generated directly on-chain and numerous payments.
A private wallet does not have a compliance department. Neither is a decentralized protocol, in many cases. The authorities therefore recover part of the puzzle. Not necessarily all the pieces.
Private wallets remain difficult to follow fiscally
The problem does not only come from DeFi. A user can buy bitcoin on a platform, send it to their own wallet for several years and then resell it elsewhere.
The exchange that receives the BTC knows the selling price. He does not always know the initial purchase price. The calculation of the added value becomes less obvious.
CARF is also not retroactive. Old transactions, certain staking income, mining rewards or crypto loans may therefore be missing in the data received by the tax authorities.
Chainalysis does not request system deletion. The company believes instead that administrations will have to supplement the platforms’ declarations with direct analysis of blockchains.
The subject is already becoming sensitive in Europe. In France, Bull Bitcoin appealed to the Council of State against the application of DAC8, in particular because of the data collected on crypto holders. The authorities want to see more. Crypto still makes it possible to move a significant part of the activity away from traditional intermediaries.
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