Every end of the year has its hauntings. For the crypto industry, December often rhymes with turbulence, liquidations and unforeseen shocks. And while traders were expecting a milder winter, a drift tsunami is looming on the horizon. This Friday, December 26, more than $27 billion in crypto options expire. The signals are there, the numbers too. It remains to be seen whether the market will read them as a new beginning… or a predicted collapse.
In brief
- 263,000 bitcoin options expire this Friday, for $23.4 billion on the table.
- The max bread at $96,000 means huge losses if bitcoin stays low.
- Institutions are not closing their positions but are discreetly moving them towards next January.
- Classic indicators are distorted: high volume of puts does not mean panic.
Bitcoin: the shadow of a trap set by derivatives markets
Bitcoin options are attracting attention: 263,000 BTC contracts are maturing, representing $23.4 billion in notional value. The put/call ratio, at 0.36, shows that the overwhelming majority of bets are bullish.
The problem? The max pain level – where the maximum number of traders lose – is at $96,000, well above the current price of bitcoin: $87,000. This suggests that the majority of options could end up offside.
On Deribit, data shows that open interest is concentrated between $85,000 and $100,000. The volumes are enormous, and the bullish expectations are visible. But in this tense climate, some professionals prefer to shift their positions towards January to avoid immediate shocks.
The tone on the networks betrays nervousness: “ Post-expiration flows will have more impact than the price itself. Monitor positions. How will the market react to an expiration of this magnitude? »
This Friday is not just a Friday. It's a tipping point where hopes risk colliding with reality.
Crypto: the opaque underside of a massive repositioning of institutions
Beyond bitcoin, the entire crypto universe is involved in this explosive end of the year. Nearly 1.25 million options on Ethereum, worth $3.7 billion, also expire this Friday. With a put/call ratio of 0.45, the dynamic remains optimistic, but cautious.
In this context, institutional investors do not close their positions: they postpone them strategically. A tactic directly mentioned by Greeks Live :
When a large volume of options expires, many institutions move their positions early to avoid pinch risk. At this time, recovering positions abandoned by these institutions represents an exceptional opportunity — the prices are extremely attractive.
The result? A market where signals become illegible. Massive puts do not mean panic. They often reflect long-term defensive strategies. For the uninitiated, it's a minefield.
But for insiders, every expiration is an opportunity to move the market. Bitcoin at $100,000 remains on the radars of big hands, as evidenced by the massive interest in this threshold. The current price is just a snapshot. The real game is on what these flows depict for the months to come.
Figures to remember to understand the storm
- $86,979: current bitcoin price;
- 263,000 BTC options expire this December 26;
- $96,000: max pain level for BTC;
- 1.25 million Ethereum options expire;
- More than 50% of overall open interest affected — a historic record.
This Friday could shake the surface, but the first quarter of 2026 hides another risk. If the Fed decides to suspend its rate cuts, this could break the upward momentum. Bitcoin, already exposed to the ups and downs of options, could plunge back towards $70,000. The crypto winter may not have said its last word yet.
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