Bitcoin has not confirmed its rebound. After an attempted recovery beyond $70,000, the price was rejected below the $68,000 trendline, a technical level monitored by analysts. This movement revives questions about the end of the bear market, while certain signals revealed stabilization. The rejection now places BTC facing major resistance and rekindles the debate on the solidity of the current cycle.
In brief
- Bitcoin fails to confirm its rebound after a rejection below the $68,000 zone.
- The 200-week exponential moving average now acts as major technical resistance.
- A peak at $70,040 followed by a decline revives doubts about the end of the bear market.
- The ability of bitcoin to sustainably regain $68,000 will determine the rest of the cycle.
Rejection below a key threshold: bitcoin hits resistance at $68,000
The crypto market was once again faced with a difficult technical reality. Indeed, bitcoin failed to transform the $68,000 zone into lasting support. After an attempted recovery towards $70,000, selling pressure quickly took over, invalidating the hypothesis of a clear reconquest of recent highs. This price reaction comes at a time when part of the market was watching for a clear signal of exit from the bearish phase.
At the heart of this dynamic is a structural indicator closely watched by analysts: the 200-week exponential moving average. Historically considered a key line of defense in bull cycles, it now acts as a technical cap. This polarity shift constitutes a strong signal for traders who analyze previous bitcoin cycles.
The facts reported reveal several specific elements:
- Bitcoin reached around $70,040 before falling back below the $68,000 zone;
- The $68,000 area corresponds to a major trendline, now tested as resistance after serving as support;
- Analyst Rekt Capital said the 200-week exponential moving average is now “now acts as resistance”;
- He adds that “As long as bitcoin moves below the 200-week exponential moving average, cycle history suggests the price remains trending towards further downside pressure”.
This technical rejection thus places the market structure in a cautious configuration, where the ability, or not, of bitcoin to sustainably reconquer these levels will determine the rest of the cycle.
Market outlook
The way this rejection has been interpreted goes beyond a simple price movement. It fuels a growing consensus that it is probably premature to announce the end of the current bear market, as Rekt Capital explained on social network X.
This caution echoes the observation that bitcoin is only about 140 days into its current down cycle, a range that remains below the minimum duration seen in previous cycles.
The impact of this rejection is also amplified by the depth of the decline recorded this year. Thus, BTC recorded a fall of almost 53% from its cyclical high of October 2025, heightening concerns about the possibility of a prolonged capitulation if major support levels give way.
The rejection of the $68,000 is a reminder that the structure remains fragile. As long as the major resistances are not reconquered, doubt dominates. Certainly, bitcoin is rebounding thanks to $258 million injected into ETFs, but this one-off support will have to be sustained over time to really change the dynamics of the cycle.
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