Bitcoin: what if the recovery of the First Republic Bank had an impact on prices?

Investors are preparing for the arrival of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in the United States. High volatility is imminent in the markets. Here are the predictions on the probable movement of bitcoin (BTC) after the NFP.

Bitcoin (BTC) Status Before NFP Report

After the FED’s decision to raise the policy rate by 25 points on Wednesday, BTC showed no significant movement. The flagship crypto closed the day up 4%. However, no major level has been crossed. Currently, bitcoin (BTC) is stabilizing slightly above $29,000. Earlier today, its price reached $29,523, which could be the high of the week.

On the economic calendar, April is predicted to have added about 180,000 non-farm jobs. A higher than expected NFP reading will be negative for bitcoin (BTC). Indeed, if the NFP report beats expectations, the US Dollar will strengthen, which could push BTC down below $27,133.

Bitcoin forecast NFP
Bitcoin (BTC) candlestick chart, Daily scale – source: TradingView

Which is quite likely given the crisis in the banking sector in the USA. If this bearish thesis is confirmed, the price of BTC may not exceed $29,973. The target being the levels below the low for the week ($27,664). On the other hand, if the NFP is lower than expected, the USD will weaken, which could push the price of bitcoin (BTC) above $31,050.

What position to take?

As a crypto trader, the best thing to do would be to wait for the publication of the NFP before deciding which position to take. Indeed, there could be manipulation movements ahead of this news. Nevertheless, one could still make predictions based on the price movement of bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin forecast NFP
Bitcoin (BTC) candlestick chart, H2 scale – source: TradingView

This week, we see that BTC has been following an ascending channel since the low of the week on Monday. This forms a kind of compression. This configuration usually precedes a “bearish move”. If so, the weekend’s 50% fib level ($29,524) could be an interesting entry point. If the price breaks through the high of the week, this bearish thesis will be invalid. Which can be the case if the NFP is lower than forecast. In this case, bitcoin (BTC) could explode above $31,050 in a bull run.

Admission: $29,524;

Stop: $29,996;

Goal: $26,556.

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