Is the bear market coming to an end? Many of the signals seen during past reversals are starting to reappear in the market. Denny Galindo, of the Global Investment Office of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, identified Six, from the timing of the cycle to the difficulty of mining bitcoin. However, not everyone is green. Some indicators remain far from the levels reached during old lows. Between historical similarities and persistent anomalies, the market would enter a revival without having yet completely left the bear market.
In brief
- Six historical signals suggest that the bear market could be nearing its end.
- The timing of the Bitcoin cycle is moving closer to previous recovery phases.
- Several indicators remain incomplete, including drawdown, mining difficulty and thermocap.
- The next cycle could be different, as AI emerges as the dominant narrative against crypto.
Crypto market calendar moves closer to previous bear market outings
Over the four full cycles tracked so far, cryptos have followed a sequence of approximately four years, with three years of bull market followed by a 12 to 14 month bear market. Galindo describes this succession as four seasons of crypto.
The current calendar is precisely close to the period when spring appeared during previous cycles. Historically, this began 17 months before the next halving, or 12 to 14 months after the previous summit. However, September of this year is 17 months before the next halving and 11 months after the last peak.
Another important marker relates to the tensions that affect exchanges as a cycle change approaches. Large platforms closed or failed just before previous crypto springs. This time, BitMEX has press release in July with a closure planned for this month of September. From the low point, a 50% rebound has historically coincided with previous market lows.
In total, the analysis retains six signals to watch to know if the market is really changing season:
- The duration of the cycle, measured in relation to the previous peak and the next halving;
- The tensions on exchanges and institutional players, observed in the run-up to previous crypto springs;
- The decline of bitcoin, compared to the corrections recorded during past bear markets;
- The difficulty of mining, whose decline then rebound accompanied previous cycle changes;
- The multiple thermocap, which measures the capitalization of bitcoin in relation to the cumulative value attributed to BTC during their mining;
- The price evolution, with the historical threshold of a 50% rebound from the low point.
Various indicators remain far from levels observed in the past
When the analysis shifts to bitcoin metrics, the picture becomes less homogeneous. Thus, previous bear markets had led to declines of between 77% and 84% below previous peaks. Bitcoin only lost 53% between October 6, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Galindo believes that this correction should be sufficient to constitute a signal, while remaining significantly shallower than those of previous cycles.
The same reservation is made regarding the difficulty of mining. The latter has fallen significantly, in accordance with the behavior historically observed at the end of the bear market, however it has not yet rebounded. A similar observation is delivered by the multiple thermocap. This indicator compares the capitalization of bitcoin to the cumulative dollar value attributed to BTC at the time of their mining.
Past bear markets have closed with a ratio below 10. During this cycle, its point has only reached 13 times. Various pieces of the historical scenario are therefore visible without exactly reproducing the old hollows.
The next bitcoin cycle could follow a different scenario
Such a divergence fuels a new question highlighted by Galindo: must bitcoin necessarily repeat its old cyclical mechanics? During the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles, the crypto only surpassed the previous cycle’s high after the halving. However, the precedent of 2024 broke this sequence. Bitcoin had therefore exceeded its 2021 record one month before the April halving.
In 2020 and 2021, crypto represented one of the most visible expressions of speculation around disruptive technologies in an environment of high liquidity. Since 2024, artificial intelligence has become the dominant growth story. Thus, Galindo poses a question likely to accompany the next cycle: has AI replaced crypto as the main speculative and technological theme of the market?
The six metrics therefore do not provide a uniform verdict. Thus, the calendar offers similarities with previous bear markets, while the decline, the difficulty of mining and the thermocap remain out of step with certain historical precedents. Two unknowns are added: the behavior of bitcoin before the next halving and the place now occupied by AI. The crypto spring may be taking shape, however Galindo’s analysis mainly invites us to observe its signs rather than announce its arrival.
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