Here's why Bitcoin could defy all the rules in a few days

In recent weeks, bitcoin has literally exploded all its records. The crypto star seems insatiable. But what should we expect from now on? Can the time factor still dictate its trajectory? By examining past cycles, some see it as a signal of imminent end. While others, more daring, are betting on an even more dizzying surge. What is certain is that the crypto market is entering a fascinating zone of turbulence, where every minute could change history.

Bitcoin at the top? What the analysis of historical cycles tells us

Peter Brandt, a market legend, remains committed to the historical cycles of bitcoin. For him, each bullish cycle is punctuated by precise timing. According to his analysisthe duration between the market bottom and the halving is the same as that between the halving and the peak.

However, in 2022, the trough occurred on November 9. The halving took place on April 20, 2024, 533 days later. Add another 533 days, and you're down…this week.

It is reasonable to expect a bull market peak any day now… These cycles, going from trough to halving to peak, have not always had the same duration, but the post-halving period has always been as long as the one preceding it.

Peter Brandt

BTC just reached a new high on Monday at over $126,000.

But Brandt qualifies his analysis by recalling that trends which break with usual market cycles or seasons are often the most spectacular. Clearly, if bitcoin were to break its historical pattern, this could pave the way for an even more significant surge.

Global liquidity: why some think the bitcoin cycle is over

Contrary to this cyclical reading, Arthur Hayes, former boss of BitMEX, believes that the famous four-year cycle is dead and buried. In an essay with an evocative title — “Long Live the King!” » — he links the major movements of bitcoin to global monetary liquidity, not to the dates of halvings. The proof? Previous bear cycles have all coincided with periods of monetary tightening.

Today, the situation is completely different. Central banks, notably the Fed and the Bank of Japan, are adopting a much more flexible stance. Donald Trump's return to the White House is seen as a catalyst for monetary expansion.

According to Hayes:

Listen to our money masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money will be cheaper and more abundant. Therefore, bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.

One way of saying that the crypto market could defy all established rules.

What the data tells us: 5 markers to watch now

Here are some crucial markers to observe to understand where bitcoin is going in the coming days:

• Bitcoin Price: At the time of writing this article, BTC is trading around $123,511;
• Monetary policy: the Fed reduced its rates in September; further declines are likely by the end of 2025;
• Historical cycle: 533 days after the halving, it's this week. Perfect symmetry or imminent rupture?
• Institutional Flows: Crypto ETFs See Record Volumes, Signaling Sustainable Bullish Appetite;
• China and deflation: Beijing does not inject massively, but indirectly supports global liquidity.

This bundle of elements suggests a palpable tension: either bitcoin confirms its cycle and stalls shortly, or the new global monetary situation creates a precedent. In both cases, the coming days are crucial. The crypto market is experiencing a pivotal moment where everything can change in a few hours.

And investors know it: every central bank speech or macroeconomic figure could be a trigger.

At the same time, some analysts are observing another indicator: gold recently reached an all-time high. This peak could well herald a phase of euphoria for bitcoin. According to them, the conditions are ripe for the king asset of traditional finance to symbolically pass the baton to the king asset of the digital world.