Bitcoin is diving back below key technical thresholds, spot ETFs are recording massive outflows and pessimism is sweeping across the entire crypto market. However, behind this growing nervousness, K33 Research identifies an anomaly rarely observed during previous BTC bear markets. Analysts believe that the extreme caution of traders could prevent a new violent capitulation. Such a reading could change the perception of the current crypto cycle.
In brief
- Bitcoin is falling back below key technical levels, reviving fears of a new violent bear market.
- K33 Research, however, believes that this cycle differs significantly from previous BTC bear markets.
- Derivatives data shows exceptional pessimism among crypto traders.
- K33 even considers that the current extreme caution could limit the risks of a new Bitcoin crash.
K33 believes that the nature of the bitcoin bear market is changing
The return of bitcoin below its 200-day moving average around $83,000 has revived fears of a new market drop. However, K33 Research analysts refuse to compare the current situation to the major bearish phases of 2014, 2018 or 2022.
In a note, Vetle Lunde explains that previous market rallies had been fueled by excessive risk-taking and aggressive leverage reversion. This time, the context seems radically different. “This slow phase of market erosion has not caused such dynamics. Derivatives data, on the contrary, reflect exceptional pessimism among traders”, asserts-he.
Several leading indicators support this analysis:
- Bitcoin's 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days;
- The annualized premium of CME futures contracts fell below 2.5%;
- Traders display strong risk aversion despite BTC’s recent decline;
- K33 still considers the fall towards $60,000 in February as the low point of the current cycle.
For the analysis company, this generalized caution mechanically limits the risks of massive liquidations comparable to previous crypto market crashes.
Bitcoin ETFs: aggressive sales and a technical battle around $76,000
However, the pressure remains very real on the market. Since May 7, US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen more than $1.5 billion in net outflows. At the same time, Glassnode evokes a “a marked shift towards aggressive sales” on the spot and futures markets. Institutional investors seem to be reducing their exposure as bitcoin is now moving around $76,000, a threshold considered strategic by several analysts.
This phase of tension, however, does not resemble a classic capitulation. Tom Lee believes that a monthly close above $76,000 would still keep the long-term bullish structure of bitcoin intact. Liquidations remain contained despite the increase in volumes on futures contracts. This is the sign of a market more in a phase of repositioning than forced collapse. K33 goes even further in his analysis by asserting that “the more measured bull market of 2025 prepares for a more moderate bear market in 2026”.
This reading opens an unusual perspective for the crypto market. Historically, bitcoin bear markets have often been fueled by speculative euphoria and excess leverage accumulated during bull runs. On the contrary, the current cycle seems to be dominated by distrust and caution. If this dynamic is confirmed, the market could evolve into a longer correction phase, but also less destructive than those observed during previous BTC cycles.
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