Bitcoin: an atypical month of September and hope

Bitcoin is preparing to close September with a gain of 4.5 %, a rare performance which historically precedes spectacular rallies at the end of the year. On-chain data also confirms a reinforced request, carried out in particular by American investors. Will this historical configuration be enough to propel the BTC to $ 170,000 by December?

A historical configuration of hopes

Bitcoin is currently evolving around $ 113,100, ready to close the month of September on a positive note. At first glance, this gain may seem modest, but its importance is far from harmless.

The story confirms this: in 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, each time that September ended with a “green candle”, the fourth quarter was marked by a powerful rally, with average performance exceeding 53 %.

Among these decisive months, October plays the role of real trigger. According to Co -quince datait displays on average +21.8 %, followed by November with +10.8 %. December, on the other hand, is more unpredictable, sometimes recording a slight correction of -3.2 %.

This seasonal scheme shows that October constitutes the springboard of the great bullish movements, which then gradually consolidate over the fall.

The figures speak for themselves: during these previous scenarios, Bitcoin systematically displayed quarterly yields between 45 % and 66 %. If the trend is repeated, the hypothesis ofA BTC at $ 170,000 by the end of 2025 takes a certain credibility.

The economist Timothy Peterson, specialist in the Bitcoin network, goes in this direction. He recalls that “around 60 % of the annual Bitcoin performance generally occurs after October 3” and estimates at 50 % the probability of seeing the assets reach $ 200,000 by mid-2026.

This seasonality is no coincidence. It is partly explained by the effect of halvings, which reduce the issuance of new bitcoins and accentuate the scarcity of assets. The years following these events are often marked by an influx of institutional capital and a repositioning of portfolios, generating buying pressure which can last until mid-year.

Onchain signals confirm the upward trend

Beyond the historical patterns, current technical indicators strengthen the optimistic scenario. The 90 -day CVD Spot Taker is returned to positive territory this Monday, displaying its first green signal since July 14.

This indicator measures the cumulative difference between purchase and sales volumes on the Spot market. When it turns green, it means that buyers clearly dominate sellers.

At the same time, the Coinbase bonus index reveals a constant accumulation by American investors. The third quarter data show an unprecedented buying activity concentration since early July.

This convergence between the positive CVD and the high coinbase bonus testifies to a solid institutional demand, a determining factor to support a durable upward trajectory.

However, a nuance is essential. According to the latest Glassnod data, the tendency to accumulation score has recently weakened, suggesting a more cautious approach to large holders.

This concentration of Bitcoin property in the hands of a minority – less than 20,000 portfolios controlling more than 60 % of the offer – could create increased volatility if these “whales” decide to take advantage.

The alignment of historical data and ONCHAIN ​​signals draws a favorable scenario for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter. The current configuration recalls the great rallys past, and the target of $ 170,000 is not pure speculation. Nevertheless, past performances never guarantee future results, and the concentration of property between some institutional actors represents a risk to be watched closely.