Brussels retains his breath. As August 1, the commercial dispute with Washington slides towards strategic confrontation. Faced with the threat of a 30 % surcharge on European imports, Paris and Berlin require a firm response. Their objective: to push the EU to activate, for the first time, the anti-coercion instrument.
In short
- France and Germany intensify pressure on the European Commission to organize a response against the price threats of the United States.
- Two waves of European customs sanctions are ready: 21 billion euros in targeted goods from August 6, then an additional 72 billion euros from August 7.
- A third offensive, still in preparation, would directly target American digital giants via taxes on digital services and online advertising.
- Brussels also plans to activate the anti-coercion instrument (ACI), an unprecedented tool to restrict American access to the EU public markets.
The EU takes out customs artillery
In a demonstration of rare unity, France and Germany officially called on the European Commission to activate targeted tariff measures against the United States if the Trump administration does not renounce its threat of customs duties before 1er august.
A series of progressive reprisals is already ready. According to The revelations of the Financial Timesa first package worth 21 billion euros could be deployed on August 6, targeting emblematic American products. A second wave, even heavier, 72 billion euros additional goods, would be subject to the vote on the same day for a possible entry into force on August 7.
The decision is already mapped, but the hope remains that the United States will reveal before the deadline.
American products targeted by these reprisals from Europe are not chosen at random. The European Union deliberately targets sectors with high visibility or high political value on the American internal market:
- The first salvo (€ 21 billion): consumer products such as chicken and jeans, with a high symbolic impact on the daily life of US households;
- A second salvo (€ 72 billion): strategic products, including Boeing or Bourbon aircraft, industries strongly established in Trump key states;
- The third salvo being prepared: it would aim for American digital services, with potential taxes on online advertisements and certain economic models of GAFAM.
This rapid hardening is a direct response to a letter sent by Donald Trump, in which the American president warns the EU of his intention to bring the prices to 30 %. This message has, according to several diplomatic sources, caused a change in radical tone in Berlin.
Germany has made a 180 degree turn in a few days, because even the most moderate in Europe now wish to show that they will not bend without lever.
An unprecedented weapon in the European arsenal: the anti-coercion instrument
In parallel with conventional customs measures, Berlin and Paris now support a tool never yet activated, but potentially explosive: the instrument anti-coercion (ACI). This legal system, designed to counter the economic pressures exerted by foreign powers, would allow the European Commission to ban American public procurement companies, cancel their intellectual property protections, or even suspend their operations in certain sectors.
The activation of this instrument would require a formal investigation into American practices, followed by validation by the Member States if an economic coercion is confirmed.
However, ACI Divides within the Union. If France and Germany see it as a credible deterrent lever in the face of the rise in tensions, several European diplomats warn. For some, “There is a silent majority against the trigger of the ACI”while others think that: “It would be nuclear. The situation is too unstable to assess with certainty the opinion of the Member States ”. This hesitation testifies to the prudence of certain European countries, which fear a commercial gear difficult to master.
While tensions get worse and threats of commercial reprisals are increasing, some investors are starting to seek assets likely to escape traditional political turbulence. In this climate of uncertainty, Bitcoin returns to credibility with institutional actors as a digital refuge value.
If a customs climbing came to impact the euro or the dollar, the markets could turn to decentralized assets, perceived as independent of the monetary and tax policies of the States. In the event of a decline in confidence in Fiat currencies, or crossed sanctions in the technological sectors, the crypto queen could benefit from a revival of attractiveness, both as a cover against instability and as a systemic alternative.
The adoption of the ACI would have major implications, far beyond EU-USA relations. It would point out a Europe ready to set itself in sovereign power in the global economic confrontation. For the technological sector, including American digital giants, the impact could be immediate, in particular with the taxation of digital services or taxation on online advertising mentioned in a third list prepared by Brussels, as evidenced by its response last March at the announcement of American taxes on metals.
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