Crypto: Near down 50%! Analysis for July 11, 2024

After a drop of more than 50%, Near is attempting a rebound at its support level. Let's take a look at the future outlook for NEAR.

Situation of the Near course

After hitting a low of $0.97, Near began a bullish rally, pushing its price towards $4.6. It was at $2.7 that the crypto would benefit from buying support, allowing Near to reach a new high of $9. All of these fluctuations allowed Near to record a performance exceeding 800% in less than six months. It should be noted that this performance was fueled by the overall rise in the crypto market. At the same time, it should be noted that Near generated real interest due to its indirect association with the flagship company Nvidia. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Near's price fell by 50%. The crypto returned to an area of ​​interest identified around $4.3. Although an attempt to rebound took place, a second wave of decline followed, bringing its price back to this last support. The Near price is now forming a double top, considered a market reversal pattern.

At the time of writing, Near is trading around $4.6. The crypto therefore seems to be attracting buying interest from its support. However, the latter has not allowed the crypto price to counter its short-term trend. As for the medium-long term structure of the crypto, it still seems bullish. However, the latest fluctuations in Near have pushed its price below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which naturally casts doubt on the continuation of this trend. In terms of the crypto price dynamics, we can observe that it has decreased significantly, although it has rebounded slightly, as evidenced by the price of Near itself as well as its oscillators. As a result, all of these elements illustrate an ongoing period of indecision for the Near price.

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of self-employed traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Zoom on derivatives (NEAR/USDT)

Open interest on NEAR/USDT contracts has been revised downwards, as has its underlying, which demonstrates a decrease in speculative interest. On the liquidation side, we can see that they are low, but mostly buyers. Combined with a mostly positive, although low, funding rate, we can deduce that the orientation of speculators is still mostly on the buyer side.

The heatmap of NEAR/USDT liquidations over the past three months shows that the liquidation zone around $4.8 has been breached. This does not seem to have impacted demand for the crypto, which continued to decline before rebounding later. At present, the most significant liquidation zones are located above the current price of Near. The closest one is located around $5.6. Besides the subtle zone near $6.7, we can also highlight the zones between $7.6 and $8.2. The approach of the price towards these levels could trigger a massive trigger of orders, increasing the risk of a period of increased volatility for the crypto. These zones can therefore represent a crucial point of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for the Near course

• As long as Near holds above $4.3, we can anticipate a return to $5.4 or even $6. A break of this resistance could open the door to $7.5, then higher to $9. At this point, this would represent an increase of more than 94%.

• If Near fails to hold above $4.3, we could see support from buyers between $3.6 and $3.1. The next support to consider, if the bearish move continues, would be $2.75. At this point, this would represent a decline of close to 40%.

Conclusion

After an impressive rise, Near has undergone a significant correction. Although a recent rebound is observed, the short-term trend remains uncertain and the overall momentum seems weakened. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at the various key levels to confirm or deny the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.