Crypto: Ethereum would be massively undervalued according to a benchmark analysis

What if Ethereum was worth much more than the market thinks? According to a study conducted by CryptoQuant, 9 out of 12 valuation models believe that ETH is today significantly undervalued. For Ki Young Ju, CEO of the platform, these analyzes reveal a significant gap between the current price of Ether and its real theoretical value. This observation reignites the debate on how cryptos should be valued.

A majority of models converge: ETH largely undervalued

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the majority of valuation models applied to Ethereum lead to the same observation: ETH is undervalued at its current price.

“These models were built by trusted experts from academia and traditional finance”he says. Of the 12 models analyzed, 9 believe that the price of ETH should be well above the current $3,000. By cross-referencing this data, an average composite value of ETH is estimated at $4,836, or 58% more than its market valuation.

Among the most notable patterns in this studyseveral stand out for their analytical approach and their results:

• The App Capital Model: takes into account all on-chain assets on Ethereum (stablecoins, ERC-20 tokens, NFT, RWA, etc.) with a valuation of $4,918 for crypto;

• The model based on Metcalfe's law: it values ​​the network according to the square of active users with an estimated valuation of $9,484, or +211% compared to the current price;

• The Layer 2 TVL model: it is based on the total value locked in Ethereum scalability solutions (Arbitrum, Optimism, etc.) with an estimated valuation of $4,633.

In total, 8 of the 12 models are considered sufficiently reliable, with a rating of two out of three or more according to ETHval criteria.

All of these approaches reflect an optimistic view of the intrinsic value of ETH, fueled by the growth of its ecosystem, the increasing adoption of L2 solutions and the expansion of use cases linked to tokenized assets. If we rely on this data, the market today would be clearly out of sync with the economic reality projected by the Ethereum network.

A disruptive model: crypto would be overvalued by more than 50%

Despite the apparent consensus between most models, certain methodological approaches qualify, or even contradict, this optimistic reading. The Revenue Yield model reveals that Ether would be significantly overvalued at its current levels.

This model, described as “most reliable” as part of the study, is based on a simple, but rigorous methodology: the division of the annual income generated by the Ethereum network by the return obtained via staking. According to calculations, the crypto should trade around $1,296, far from current levels, and would indicate an overvaluation of 57%.

This pessimistic reading is based on a tangible observation: the fall in revenues from the Ethereum network. Transaction fees have reached historic lows, reflecting declining on-chain activity, while other emerging blockchains are eating into the network's market share.

This decline in income mechanically affects the return on staking, the very basis of this evaluation model. Unlike other more projected or theoretical approaches, the Revenue Yield model favors a fundamental and immediate reading, focused on the net cash flows generated by the Ethereum crypto network.

While Ethereum raises its gas limit to 60M, strengthening its technical capabilities, the debate over its valuation takes on a new dimension. Between bullish projections and methodological prudence, the market will have to decide: is ETH really undervalued or simply ahead of its economic reality?