After a devastating fall, bitcoin is preparing to face December, a traditionally formidable month for the cryptocurrency. Historical signals are flashing red, fueling fears of a new bearish wave. However, some analysts dare to envisage an opposite scenario.
In brief
- Bitcoin ended November 2025 with a sharp fall of -17.28%, one of the worst performances recorded for this month in seven years.
- Historically, a November in the red often heralds a difficult December, marked by profit-taking and reduced liquidity.
- The October-November 2025 period represents the worst combination since 2018, reinforcing concerns for the last month of the year.
- Despite this pessimistic context, certain technical indicators suggest that a one-off rebound could occur before the end of the year.
Bitcoin facing December, is the historic trap closing again?
Coinglass' numbers speak for themselves. November 2025 ended with a drop of -17.28% for bitcoin, shattering the expectations of investors who were counting on the usual positive dynamics of this period.
This poor performance is part of a worrying trend: when November turns red, December generally follows suit.
Crypto Rover analysis reveals a recurring pattern. Years marked by a negative November have systematically resulted in a difficult December. This phenomenon can be explained by a chain reaction: faced with accumulated losses, traders err on the side of caution and reduce their exposure before the end of the year.
The current context amplifies these fears. Massive capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, combined with continued macroeconomic uncertainty, are weighing heavily on market sentiment. Institutional investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, preferring to postpone their investments until January.
Psychological pressure reaches critical levels. After a catastrophic October, the worst since 2018, followed by a disastrous November, confidence is wavering. The data also shows a significant change in behavior: “whales” pause while small holders attempt to seize opportunities, a signal often associated with increased volatility.
December, the month of all dangers?
December has a sulphurous reputation in the crypto universe. Historically, this is one of the weakest months for bitcoin.
Several structural factors explain this trend: year-end tax optimization pushes many investors to crystallize their losses, while others take advantage of the opportunity to secure their gains.
Liquidity diminishes considerably during this period. Markets slow down between Christmas and New Year, creating conditions conducive to sudden movements. Analysts point out that 2025 records the worst October-November sequence in seven years, mechanically increasing the probability of a complicated December.
The usual end-of-year behaviors are already taking shape. Professional traders limit their risk-taking, preferring to close their positions before the holidays. Long-term investors are procrastinating, waiting until January to deploy new capital. This dynamic creates an imbalance between sellers and buyers, favoring downward pressure.
However, a glimmer of hope is emerging. According to some technical analysts, bitcoin may have reached a local bottom.
The weekly RSI, near level 30, historically suggests rebound potential. If this scenario materializes, a move towards $100,000-110,000 would become possible, providing temporary relief to investors.
Faced with unfavorable historical trends and a catastrophic fall, bitcoin enters December in a weak position. The seasonal pattern seems relentless, pushing investors to be cautious. It remains to be seen whether buyers will be able to break the cycle this time or if history will repeat itself once again.
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