The 2017 spectrum returns to haunt speculators. While some bet on a flame return of the XRP, comparisons with the last Bull Run are increasing. However, the current market has little to do with that of yesterday. New dynamic, reinforced competition, divergent technical signals: does an analogy still hold the road? Behind the hope of a bullish rebound, a colder reading of the data tells another story.
In short
- Some technical analysts see in the current XRP course a repetition of the 2017 bullish scheme.
- They anticipate an explosion of the price up to $ 20, based on a symmetrical triangle similar to that observed before the previous Bull Run.
- This approach is based exclusively on graphic elements, without taking into account current economic or behavioral fundamentals.
- The current context, much more competitive, makes a repetition of past performance of XRP unlikely.
Supporters of a graphic remake of the 2017 Bull Run Run
Some influential analysts of the crypto sphere, including Cryptowzrd and JD, argue that the current technical configuration of the XRP price recalls that which preceded the explosion of +11,900 % recorded in 2017.
At that time, the XRP had evolved for several months in a consolidation figure in a symmetrical triangle, before brutally breaking upwards and starting a historic rally.
According to Cryptowzrd, “The current behavior of the XRP market almost exactly reflects the dynamics before its Bull Run of 2017”.
JD evokes a theoretical objective of $ 20 dollars per crypto, based on similar technical extrapolation.
This thesis is based exclusively on a chartist approach, according to which prices would obey recurring cycles, regardless of current fundamentals. Supporters of this vision are based on several graphic elements, in particular:
- A current consolidation phase recalling the structure of 2017 (symmetrical triangle over several months);
- An expected bullish break, identified by analysts as imminent;
- A theoretical target set at $ 20, based on the projection of the amplitude of the triangle;
- A conviction that history is repeated, despite the evolution of the market for eight years.
This visually convincing narrative finds echo on social networks, where the prospect of a “Second 2017” attracts many private investors.
Fundamental signals that contradict the promise of a rally
Unlike 2017, the behavioral data of long -term XRP holders today show a loss of marked conviction. Based on NUPL indicator (Net unrealized profit/loss) supplied by Glassnode, it should be noted that these investors went from the “euphoria and avidity” area to that of “conviction and denial”. This decline of feeling suggests that holders now doubt the solidity of the rally.
In 2017, this same metric, on the contrary, showed prolonged support in euphoria, a sign of a strong commitment despite volatility. This growing hesitation reflects a loss of confidence, similar to that observed just before the 2021 correction.
The other breaking element is the chronic underperformance of the XRP against Bitcoin. If the XRP/BTC ratio had climbed more than 3,700 % in 2017 to peak at 0.00023 BTC, today there are around 90 % below this summit, blocked in a distribution area between 0.000025 and 0.000030 BTC, already tested several times between 2019 and 2022.
This technical level, historically synonymous with stagnation or reflux, illustrates the inability of the Ripple crypto to resume leadership in the face of the dominant assets of the market.
These deep differences between the context of 2017 and that of this year call for a cautious reading. The Crypto market is now more mature, more competitive, and the XRP must deal with serious rivals like Ethereum, Solana, Suit or Stablecoins in the cross -border payments sector. The scenario of an impulsive Bull Run carried out by the only technical analysis therefore seems fragile. Currently, nothing allows us to assert that the conditions are met for a rehearsal of the 2017 cycle.
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