XRP Falls Below $1 Despite Large Wallets Accumulating

XRP has just lost a level that it had defended since the end of 2024. Briefly falling below $1, Ripple’s token is now down more than 5% over one month, unlike bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. However, behind this weakness lies a paradox: long-term investors are accumulating massively, while derivatives markets are increasing selling pressure and flows into ETFs have suddenly dried up. Two opposing forces are now clashing over XRP, and their duel could determine the token’s next move.

The silent accumulation of major investors and the drying up of deposits

Despite a continued double-digit decline in market capitalization in recent weeks, on-chain indicators attest to massive accumulation by the largest holders of the market. According to Santiment analysts, 32 new wallets have been added to the number of addresses that hold at least one million XRP over the past three months. Thus, these progressive acquisitions methodically absorb the downward pressure coordinated by individual investors.

The Santiment team of experts sees such a dynamic as a long-term conviction strategy. She asserts SO : “When the number of wallets holding at least a million XRP increases while the market cap falls, it means that strong hands are absorbing the panic. Patience takes precedence over simple speculative enthusiasm linked to the price, and the prospects of future volatility become all the more attractive for buyers.. In addition, we notice a quantitative increase in daily interactions, due to the behavior of network users. Thus, active addresses increased from 26,400 in July to 35,700 in August. The day of August 11 was marked by a peak of activity, unmatched since June 5.

The current state of centralized exchanges shows a locking of tokens outside of immediate transfer circuits. Thus, the data published by CryptoOnchain reveal a whopping 96% drop from monthly and quarterly norms. Meanwhile, inflows and outflows fell 79% and 85%, respectively, in proportion to their 90-day rolling averages. Furthermore, for analyst CrytoOnchain, this trend reflects a strict retention of XRP coins: “The network is seeing strong activity, but tokens are not being transferred to exchanges for sale”. With this in mind, the majority of long-term holders of XRP, far from giving in to general panic, made the deliberate choice to isolate their positions outside of exchange platforms, despite the price correction.

Such resilience demonstrated by the historical holders of the network is reflected through different accumulation metrics:

• A growth in the number of whales: wallets holding at least one million XRP have increased by 32 over the last three months, amid a decline in prices;
• The collapse of deposit activity on Binance: we note a 96% drop in XRP deposit addresses compared to usual averages, accompanied by a decline in inflows (-79%) and outflows (-85%);
• A steady increase in network usage: The increase in daily active addresses to 35,700 on average in August (compared to 26,400 in July), reaching a peak on August 11.

Stagnant adoption under the weight of derivatives selling pressure

Despite the solidity of the activity of historical portfolios, this in no way demonstrates an increase in the ecosystem or a dynamic of purchases at the level of the futures markets. From this perspective, Santiment adds nuance to this overall picture. The analysis platform therefore indicates that the creation of new addresses is desperately stagnating at 2,260 per day currently compared to 2,270 in July. Analysts say: “Presenting the situation in terms of increasing user activity is only half true. The existing user base is simply transacting more, but the overall number of wallets is not increasing.”.

Without further revitalization of the network, short-term speculation would continue to influence prices. As for the derivatives market of the Binance exchange, the selling pressure is imposed without much difficulty. Thus, the taker buy/sell ratio plunged to 0.86, its lowest value since May. The Arab Chain analyst underlines the scope of such a figure: “a value less than 1 indicates that the volume of sell orders executed by traders exceeds that of buy orders, thus reflecting clear selling pressure from participants operating directly on the market”.

A Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) confirms this clear domination of sellers. The indicator is still in the red at around -4.15 million, although it maintains a correlation of 0.84 with the price. Arab Chain shoot then the following conclusion: “despite the strong correlation between the CVD and the price, the value of the CVD remains anchored in negative territory. This shows that the cumulative market flows are clearly leaning towards the selling side, proving that buying activity remains insufficient to shift the balance of flows into the positive zone.. Short-term sellers therefore continue to impose their pace in the face of buyers unable to reverse the trend on the order books.

The scarcity of flows on XRP ETFs

Institutional investors are also marking time. SoSoValue data show that the XRP ETFs recorded a zero balance over the last four sessions. Such a decline was spectacular in the week ending August 7.

Indeed, these products, after an accumulation of 14.86 million dollars the previous week, they only attracted 1.01 million dollars, which constitutes a colossal drop of 93%. Thus, over the last twelve days of August, cumulative inflows struggled to exceed this single small million dollars, attesting to the temporary disaffection of professional investors.

Ultimately, the confrontation between the firmness of the whales and the disinterest of individual investors in ETFs as well as derivatives positions XRP in a precarious balance. The absence of new users contributes to the restriction of the market’s ability to absorb aggressive selling by short-term traders. A resumption of inflows into ETFs could generate lasting upward momentum.