Could bitcoin make a remarkable comeback by the end of the year? As markets scrutinize the decisions of the Federal Reserve, the flagship crypto benefits from a more favorable macroeconomic context. Improving global liquidity and the prospect of monetary easing are fueling hopes of a rebound in December. Behind this emerging optimism, investors remain on alert: a single misstep by the Fed could call everything into question.
In brief
- Bitcoin could begin a rebound in December, supported by improving global liquidity.
- Coinbase identifies several favorable macro signals, including a 92% probability of a rate cut by the Fed.
- Despite this positive outlook, the market remains dominated by fear, with capital still reluctant to return.
- Jerome Powell's conference, scheduled for December 10, is seen as a key moment to confirm or slow down the rally.
A recovery driven by macroeconomic fundamentals
Coinbase Institutional believes that the combination of improving global liquidity and rising interest rate cut expectations could support a crypto market recovery during this month.
In a report released on Friday, the platform writing : “We believe cryptos could be positioned to rebound in December as liquidity improves, Fed rate cut odds reach 92%, and macroeconomic winds turn favorable“.
This perspective is based in particular on the custom M2 index developed by Coinbase, which measures the evolution of the global fiat money supply. For the platform's analysts, this indicator reveals a reversal of trend after several months of weakness.
This potential end-of-year rebound is based on a series of macroeconomic signals that Coinbase judges to be convergent. Here is the key elements highlighted in the report:
- A notable improvement in global liquidity, measured by their internal indicator based on M2 money supply;
- A high probability (92% as of December 4) of monetary easing by the Fed, depending on the markets;
- Expectations of the end of the monetary tightening cycle, likely to revive the appetite for risky assets like bitcoin.
However, enthusiasm remains limited. Coinbase observes that the market is still dominated by fear, with a marked absence of incoming capital, from both institutional and retail sources.
Volumes on crypto ETFs remain low, and the entire market seems suspended on a still uncertain trigger, days before a highly anticipated monetary decision in the United States.
A fragile recovery under threat from the Fed and political uncertainties
Beyond economic indicators, the central role of the American Federal Reserve in the trajectory of bitcoin is highlighted by several analysts.
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, believes that Jerome Powell's press conference, scheduled for December 10 after the FOMC meeting, could have a decisive impact on the market. He explains: “if the Fed cuts rates on December 10, also ending quantitative tightening (QT), there would be little left to prevent a Bitcoin Christmas rally, barring a major geopolitical shock“.
However, Puckrin tempers this perspective by emphasizing that “Jerome Powell's every word will be scrutinized for clues about 2026 monetary policy, and too restrictive a speech could slow the rally“.
This caution is reinforced by the precedent of November, during which bitcoin suffered downward pressure after remarks by Powell. Chris Kim, CEO of Axis, an on-chain quantitative trading fund, confirms this reading: “The main driver of the market right now is macro. We are leaning towards a recovery, especially as the market has already retested the $80,000 zone and the 100-week moving average“.
Added to this are certain technical and structural signals considered encouraging, such as the recent authorization of ETF trading by Vanguard. Another factor could also reshape the monetary landscape in the medium term: the rumor of a possible appointment of Kevin Hassett as head of the Fed in 2026, an economist renowned for his more accommodating positions.
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