In its latest report “The Bitcoin Monthly”, ARK Invest suggests that a new bullish phase could emerge for bitcoin in 2025, based on an in-depth analysis of its particularly moderate current volatility.
Moderate Bitcoin Volatility Paves the Way for a Rise in 2025
In its December report, ARK Invest provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin volatility, comparing monthly variations to annual fluctuations. The data reveals that despite notable price movements, current volatility remains moderate by historical standards. This unusual stability suggests that the market has not yet reached its euphoric phase, typically observed during cycle peaks.
The ARK team interpreter this period of relative calm as a bullish signal for 2025. The report also draws on several promising on-chain indicators, including the continued rise in mining difficulty and the behavior of historical investors.
A particularly striking figure emerges from this analysis: 62% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained immobile for more than a year. This metric demonstrates remarkable confidence among long-term holders, who maintain their positions despite market variations.
Robust technical fundamentals support the bullish thesis
The solidity of bitcoin's technical fundamentals is confirmed through several key indicators. The network's hash rate continues to set new records, strengthening the security of the blockchain. Short-term holder cost, an important indicator of market sentiment, also suggests a solid foundation for future expansion.
Growing institutional adoption also plays a crucial role in this stabilization. Capital inflows via regulated investment products demonstrate increased market maturity, helping to reduce the historical volatility of the asset.
The combination of these technical factors with moderate volatility creates, according to ARK Invest, the ideal conditions for a new phase of market expansion in 2025, potentially marking the start of a new bull cycle for bitcoin.
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