Debt of France: a tutorship of the IMF is no longer excluded

For the first time, the idea of ​​a supervision of France by the IMF crosses the doors of Bercy. Long reserved for countries in crisis, this prospect, now assumed at the top of the state, reveals the extent of the budget skid. An abyssal debt, high interest loads, and the pressure of rating agencies form an explosive cocktail. The signal is clear: French economic sovereignty vacillates, and international institutions are now scrutinizing Paris with the same severity as economies in difficulty.

French public debt: the figures that worry Bercy

While the interests of the French debt explode in a tense economic context, the figures communicated by Bercy have something to shudder.

According to The data made public in early JuneFrance will have to devote 67 billion euros in 2024 to the payment of the only interests of public debt, a historic record.

This amount is added to a global debt which now reaches more than 3,300 billion euros, or 113 % of GDP. Such a level of debt places France among the most vulnerable states in the euro zone.

It is in this climate that the Minister of the Economy, Éric Lombard, pulled An unusual alarm bell:

Our country loses in sovereignty, independence, and could find itself under the threat of a guardianship of creditors and the IMF.

Indeed, this declaration, unusual by its gravity, marks a turning point in the official discourse around the budgetary trajectory of France.

This tilting is reinforced by a series of indicators which reflect the runaway of public finances. The ministry anticipates a slippage which could reach 100 billion euros in deficit, that is to say a faster deterioration rate than estimated.

In this context, the debt burden threatens to become, this year, the first post of public spending, before the sovereign missions of the State. Here is an overview of budget comparisons advanced by Bercy:

• 67 billion euros devoted only to debt interest in 2024;
• 88 billion euros planned for the national education budget;
• 59 billion euros allocated to National Defense in 2025.

This simple reversal of a budgetary hierarchy illustrates the gradual loss of control over the fundamental balances of public accounts, which feeds market worries as rating agencies.

A degraded notation and a negative scenario

The table is still darkening when we observe the reaction of the rating agencies. On May 30, the Standard & Poor's agency (S&P) confirmed the French note to Aa−, equivalent to 16.5 out of 20, but maintaining a negative perspective.

In financial language, this means that a future degradation remains highly likely if no recovery is made. Two other major agencies, Fitch and Moody's, share a similar evaluation. This negative convergence is not only symbolic. It strengthens the probability of an increase in interest rates on French debt, which would further worsen the budgetary spiral.

This new budgetary hierarchy, where the cost of debt would exceed this year that of education (€ 88 billion) and defense (€ 59 billion), reflects an unprecedented reversal of state priorities.

Conversely, several BRICS countries display a more stable budgetary trajectory, with controlled debt levels and sustained growth which contrasts with French structural imbalances.

The fact that the simple reimbursement of interests becomes the heart of public expenditure illustrates a gradual loss of control over essential economic levers. It is in this context that some economists fear a change in France in a form of dependence on the markets, which could strongly restrict its decision -making capacities.

If the hypothesis of an AMM IMF can still seem extreme, the simple fact that it is mentioned publicly by an in -office represents a change of time. This is a strong political signal, perhaps intended as much to alert as to preparing the spirits.

The consequences of such a guardianship would be considerable: the loss of credibility on the markets, the imposition of drastic reforms, and external surveillance of national budgetary choices. A scenario that France has never known since the Second World War, and which would place France alongside countries like Greece or Argentina in the global financial imagination. However, can the state then requisition the savings of the French to mop this public debt?