At the start of the school year, the big banks returned to their copy. Faced with a net slowdown in the American economy, the idea of two to three rate drops this year is gradually essential. Investors, suspended at the smallest signals of the Fed, see in this change of course a potential turning point.
In short
- Several large banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, now provide two to three drops in guiding rate in 2025.
- This reversal is explained by a series of disappointing economic statistics, in particular a clear slowdown in the job market in the United States.
- For cryptos, a drop in rates could create an environment favorable to revival of liquidity and a new bullish phase.
- This dynamic could also revive institutional interest in the sector, provided that inflation remains under control.
Wall Street reviews its copy: a turning point in rate forecasts
The degradation of American economic indicators, especially on the job market, has sparked a wave of revisions among the major investment banks.
The August employment report was largely below expectations, with only 22,000 job creations against 75,000 anticipated, which has strengthened the anticipations of a change in monetary cap, as Christopher Waller argued.
In the process, Bank of America, long opposed to the idea of a relaxation this year, has changed its position: “We are now planning two decreases of 25 base points in September and December 2025”she has declared.
Same observation at Goldman Sachs, who provides now a series of three successive rate drops in the fall of 2025, a trajectory Also taken over by Citigroup.
Here is a precise summary of current projections of major banks for this year:
- Bank of America: two decreases of 25 base points scheduled, in September and December 2025;
- Goldman Sachs: three decreases of 25 base points, spread over September, October and November;
- Citigroup: also three decreases of 25 base points, but spread out on September, October and December.
This change in forecasts finds an echo in the words of Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, who recognized during his speech on August 22 at Jackson Hole “Clear signs of moderation on the job market”.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the June report was corrected to display a net loss of 13,000 jobs, and the cumulative revisions could reach 950,000 jobs for 2025.
These signals strengthen the idea that the Fed could be forced to soften its policy to respond to its double mandate: full employment and price stability.
An opportunity window for cryptos?
Beyond macroeconomic signals, it is the market data that reinforce the idea of a monetary softening. According to CME Group forecasting tools, 88 % of traders already anticipate a first drop of 25 basic points from the FOMC meeting during this month.
12 % even envisage a more marked drop, of 50 base points. These anticipations, based on market data rather than the simple official declarations, reflect a repositioning of investors. They indicate that the prospect of an expansion of medium -term credit is now integrated into asset allocation strategies.
This potential monetary relaxation could act as a catalyst for the Crypto market, which have always benefited from a low rate and abundant liquidity environment. In previous cycles, especially between 2020 and 2021, accommodating policies were associated with spectacular increases on Bitcoin and Altcoins.
If the rate drops are materialized this year on a regular calendar, as envisaged by Goldman Sachs, this could create an environment favorable to a return of the appetite for the risk. This is of course conditioned on the evolution of inflation and global macroeconomic stability, but the basics of a crypto recovery scenario are laid.
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