The quantum threat looms over Bitcoin. Charles Edwards, founder of the Capriole fund, issues an unequivocal warning: without adequate protection by 2028, the king of cryptos could collapse. A prediction that resonates as the market is already going through turbulence.
In brief
- Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, predicts bitcoin will fall below $50,000 if the network does not protect against quantum computing by 2028.
- Quantum computers threaten to break current bitcoin encryption and expose users' private keys.
- Edwards believes that Bitcoin will be “first in the quantum hot seat,” unlike banking institutions already transitioning to post-quantum encryption.
The urgency of a transition to post-quantum encryption
Charles Edwards doesn't mince his words. The fund manager, who specializes in digital assets, says that Bitcoin must have protection against quantum computing before 2028. Otherwise, the price of BTC could collapse well below $50,000 and continue its descent until a solution is found.
This warning comes in an already tense context for the crypto market. On Monday, December 15, bitcoin abruptly fell to $86,700, its lowest level in two weeks. This drop caused a cascade of liquidations exceeding $210 million in just one hour. A stark reminder of the volatility inherent in the sector.
Quantum computing represents a long-standing theoretical threat to cryptos. These ultra-powerful machines could, in theory, break the encryption algorithms that currently protect users' private keys. Once these protections are compromised, the funds of millions of holders would be exposed to malicious attacks.
Edwards is categorical : “ I'm starting to think we'll just need a huge bear market to weed out the idiots who think the quantum threat to Bitcoin is a joke “.
According to him, a fix must be deployed from 2026 to avoid the worst. “ This absolutely needs to be fixed next year, otherwise goodbye and prepare for the biggest bitcoin bear market in history », he adds bluntly.
Bitcoin more vulnerable than traditional institutions
Contrary to popular belief, Edwards believes that Bitcoin will be affected before traditional banking systems. His reasoning is based on a simple observation: most large financial institutions are already migrating to post-quantum encryption protocols.
Banks also have mechanisms to cancel or block fraudulent transactions, an option that does not exist in the crypto world.
“Bitcoin will be the first in the quantum hot seat,” insists Edwards. Without a quick solution, this decentralized network vulnerability risks triggering widespread panic among investors. The founder of Capriole even compares the potential scale of this crisis to the collapse of FTX, but much worse.
Faced with this threat, some actors are offering temporary solutions. Bitcoin pioneer Willy Woo suggests holding your assets in a SegWit wallet for about seven years while developers put in place lasting protection. A cautious approach for worried investors.
However, not everyone shares this alarmist vision. Michael Saylor, a staunch bitcoin advocate, downplayed these concerns last July. Above all, he sees it as a “marketing maneuver” aimed at artificially inflating the price of tokens labeled “quantum”. This difference of opinion reflects the debate currently going through the crypto ecosystem on the real urgency of the threat.
The quantum threat is no longer a simple subject of science fiction for Bitcoin. Between Charles Edwards' warnings and current market volatility, the crypto ecosystem faces a major technical challenge. The next few years will determine whether the network can adapt in time to preserve investor confidence and avoid a historic collapse.
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