Is Bitcoin about to enter the biggest bullish phase in its history? Raoul Pal, one of the most respected macro-strategists in the sector, is convinced of this. According to him, the growing pressure on global debt, massive liquidity injections and the historic investment boom provide all the conditions to trigger a real “supercycle” by the end of 2026.
In brief
- Raoul Pal believes that the chances of a bitcoin supercycle are increasing sharply.
- He points to the monetization of global debt as the main driver of this dynamic.
- According to him, the increase in the M2 money supply directly favors bitcoin.
- The theoretical target put forward by Pal reaches $450,000 per BTC by 2026.
Why does Raoul Pal believe in a Bitcoin supercycle?
On Sunday, on the X network, Raoul Pal affirmed that the probability of a Bitcoin supercycle today reached its “highest level in history”. He immediately rules out the euphoria of individuals or the halving of Bitcoin as the main triggers. The real driving force would be the profound transformation of the global financial system.
At the heart of his thesis: sovereign debt. For several years, governments, notably the United States, have financed their deficits via short-term Treasury bills. This mechanism creates an increasing dependence on the liquidity of central banks. With each refinancing cycle, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are pressured to pump more money into the system to avoid financial stress.
For Raoul Pal, this monetary creation directly benefits rare assets like Bitcoin. The macro-strategist also recalls that he has long observed a correlation close to 90% between BTC and the global money supply M2. That is, when global liquidity increases, bitcoin generally follows the same trajectory.
This analysis takes place in a particular context. Interest payments on US debt are reaching historic records while markets are already anticipating gradual monetary easing from the Fed.
At the same time, massive investments in artificial intelligence, infrastructure and the energy transition are fueling what Pal describes as “the largest capital spending boom in modern history.”
The role of institutions could change the size of the market
For the founder of Real Vision, the current cycle differs profoundly from previous crypto bull markets. In 2021, bitcoin was still largely dependent on retail investors. In 2026, the landscape has changed.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have opened the door for asset managers, banks and listed companies. Institutional players are now accumulating BTC as a strategic cash reserve. This dynamic gradually reduces the supply available on the market.
The case of Strategy perfectly illustrates this trend. Michael Saylor's company now holds more than 818,000 bitcoins. Despite recent debates around possible one-off sales to finance certain dividends, the company continues to send buying signals to the market. This strategy fuels the conviction of many institutional investors.
Raoul Pal thus believes that in the event of a massive return of global liquidity, Bitcoin could experience a much more powerful acceleration than in previous cycles. Its most optimistic scenario evokes a BTC at 450,000 dollars by the end of 2026. However, he specifies that this is a probabilistic projection and not a certainty.
The market remains volatile. But several elements now reinforce this hypothesis: expansion of the money supply, institutional adoption, American budgetary pressures and gradual integration of Bitcoin into the financial strategies of states and companies.
The scenario defended by Raoul Pal may seem ambitious. However, it is based on very real macroeconomic trends which are gradually transforming the role of Bitcoin in global finance.
If central banks effectively revive global liquidity in the coming months, Bitcoin could enter a historic bullish phase. A prospect that now attracts both individuals and large financial institutions.
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