Bitcoin is making a spectacular breakthrough. If Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections was a focal point, it would be too simplistic to believe that this single event is fueling the skyrocketing rise of the first crypto. The story is much more complex, and other, much more subtle, factors lie behind this trend.
A post-halving Bitcoin supply shock: the hidden mechanics
Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, wanted to clarify a crucial point: Trump, while interesting, is not the central piece of the puzzle.
To understand the rise of bitcoin, we have to go back to April, when the dreaded halving took place.
This event, which halves the miners' reward for each block, increased the remuneration from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Result ? Supply pressure has built up, creating an imbalance where demand begins to far outstrip supply.
For Myers, the equation is simple: fewer bitcoins are being produced, and yet the appetite for the asset has never been so voracious.
“The main story is that we are facing a major supply shock,” he says. In this context, prices must necessarily rise to restore balance. It's like trying to buy ice cream in a heatwave: everyone wants some, but there isn't enough. Do you see the table?
The ETF effect and market psychology
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), introduced earlier this year, have exacerbated this supply pressure.
On November 11 alone, approximately 13,940 BTC were purchased by ETFs in the United States, while only 450 BTC were mined. This frenzy creates a snowball effect, where increasing prices attract more buyers, amplifying demand and leading to near-hysterical behavior in the market.
Myers sums it up well: “This is how this dynamic works, leading to predictable bubbles after each halving. »
Rarity also plays a central role. Currently, 94% of existing bitcoins are already in circulation or lost, leaving a measly 1.2 million BTC to be mined.
This restricted supply fuels the bullish forecasts. Onchain analyst James Check even points out that, compared to gold, bitcoin is absolutely rare, with no possibility of accelerated production or massive recycling.
Iconic figures like Anthony Scaramucci agree: “You think you've missed the boat, but you haven't. We are only at the beginning. » This confidence is echoed in the strategies of States which could soon establish strategic reserves of bitcoin, leading to a domino effect among institutions and asset managers.
If Trump catalyzed a moment of curiosity, it is the well-oiled mechanism of the crypto market, marked by its scarcity and its supply shocks, which propels bitcoin. Between the post-halving mechanics and the dynamics introduced by ETFs, bitcoin seems destined to reach new heights. For those who think the tide has passed, it would be wise to reconsider their position: the tide is only rising.
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