The 2024 American presidential election ended in a resounding victory for Donald Trump, who this time won the popular vote and improved his 2020 score. The Republicans regain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives!
Trump: a president with full powers
Donald Trump now has a unprecedented capacity for action. With 53 Republican seats in the Senate and a majority in the House, it benefits fromstrong parliamentary support. Its control over the Republican Party has also strengthened since his first term.
The big bosses of American tech, previously hostile, now seem more conciliatory. Mark Zuckerberg he himself had expressed his admiration after Trump recovered from an attempted attack.
This shift in the balance of power in favor of Trump gives him considerable latitude for action.
Trump: end of the war in Ukraine in 48 hours?
The Ukrainian file represents a major challenge for the new president. Contrary to popular belief, Trump is not an ally of Putin.
It was he who, in 2018, supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, aid that Barack Obama had always refused.
The situation on the ground is evolving rapidly. The Russian army is advancing approximately 30 km² per dayparticularly around Koupiansk which could fall before the end of the year. Rumors speak of the arrival of 10,000 North Korean soldiers additional in the Kursk sector.
What is Trump's plan in Ukraine?
The conflict resolution project provides for several major measures.
The fighting would immediately freeze on the current front lines. Ukraine would accept partial demilitarization of its territory.** European forces would provide patrols along the new front line.
US would pledge to support Ukraine's rearmament to ensure its future security. In return, kyiv would renounce all membership in NATO for a period of twenty years.
This plan appears as unacceptable for Putin. It would place NATO forces (via European armies) directly on the Russian border, precisely what the Russian leader has sought to avoid since the start of the conflict.
Putin's trump cards
Vladimir Putin has several major strategic assets. Its defense industry is now operating at full capacity after two years of mobilization. Its armed forces are making significant advances on the Ukrainian terrain. He can also count on possible political destabilization in Germany, where early elections could take place in March 2024.
The general weakening of European military capabilities also works in its favor.
The Russian president could be tempted to continue its offensive rather than accepting a compromise, especially during the transition period before Trump's inauguration at the end of January 2024.
Risks of escalation
The situation involves risk of conflagration significant. Trump has already demonstrated his ability to take bold military actions, such as bombings in Syria in 2017.
A direct confrontation between Trump and Putin could free up space for other international actors.
There China in particular could take advantage of an American concentration on the European front to advance its pawns in its region (Taiwan).
Trump will make Europe pay
The American peace plan also aims to make Europeans responsible. By entrusting them with surveillance of the Russian-Ukrainian border, Trump is forcing them to take on a bigger military role, in line with its repeated demands for increased defense budgets.
However, Europe is going through a period of instability. There German coalitionpillar of the Union since reunification, just exploded. A possible victory for the right in early elections in Germany could reshuffle the cards of European politics.
Before Trump's inauguration
The three months before Trump's inauguration are shaping up decisive. The speed of Russian advances, political developments in Germany and Europe's ability to mobilize will largely determine the options available to the new US president.
Without a hostile transition like in 2020, Donald Trump will quickly have all the levers of power. It remains to be seen how he will use them against Vladimir Putin who, according to his first reactions, seems aware of the challenges that this new Trump mandate represents.
Global stability will largely depend on how these two leaders manage their inevitable confrontation. If a frontal clash seems likely on the Ukrainian question, it could open the way to other geopolitical upheavals.
The recent authorization given to American private military companies to operate in Ukraine marks a further potential escalation. This decision, taken by the Biden administration but possibly coordinated with the Trump transition team, could be interpreted by Moscow as a direct provocation. There is a real risk of seeing the conflict intensify if Russia considers this presence as a disguised American intervention.
What about the conflict between Iran and Israel?
The attention paid to Ukraine could have unexpected repercussions on other areas of tension. Iran, which seemed ready to respond to Israeli strikes during the American election period, temporarily suspended plans in the face of Trum's clear victoryp. This restraint could, however, be short-lived.
THE Israeli case deserves special attention. Netanyahu's strategy, aimed at prodding Iran to draw the United States into a broader conflict, may find a more receptive ally in Trump. Contrary to popular belief, Trump is not opposed to targeted military actions. He demonstrated his willingness to use force when he deemed it necessary, favoring air strikes over deployments of ground troops.
Towards technological soft power?
Trump's arrival marks a radical change in the attitude of American economic elites. The giants of Silicon Valley, traditionally aligned with Democratic positions, seem to be making a strategic shift. This turnaround is partly explained by their disillusionment with the Democratic Partyparticularly after the controversial replacement of Biden by Kamala Harris.
Big bosses like Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg and Google executives re-evaluate their positioning. This development is not trivial: it suggests a possible reconciliation between Trump and a significant part of American soft power. Their support, even tacit, considerably strengthens the president's position and his ability to act on the international scene.
This change in attitude also reflects a deeper transformation within the American technological elite. In California, a traditional stronghold of the Democrats, we observe a gradual shift to the right. This movement, which began in recent years, is accelerating in the face of the perceived excesses of “wokism” embodied by certain positions of Kamala Harris.
Convergence between Trump and tech elites could lead to a new form of projection of American power. The tensions that marked his first mandate, particularly with social networks and large platforms, could give way to a closer collaboration. This informal alliance would significantly strengthen the overall influence of the United States, combining military hard power and technological soft power.
World War 3?
The period which opens represents a unprecedented challenge for the international order. The confrontation between Trump and Putin over Ukraine could lead to three scenarios: a negotiated de-escalation, a controlled escalation of conflict, or a dangerous escalation towards direct confrontation.
Without a hostile transition like in 2020, Donald Trump will quickly have all the levers of power. It remains to be seen how he will use them against Vladimir Putin. If a frontal clash seems likely on the Ukrainian question, it could pave the way for other major geopolitical upheavals : Iran, China…
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