Arcane Research suggests bitcoin’s Bottom is near. Glassnode too.
Has Bitcoin Hit Bottom?
The society Arcane compared the duration of this bear market with those of 2014-15 and 2018. It appears that the end of the tunnel is probably not very far away.
Currently, bitcoin is down 77% from its 2021 high to its recent low ($15,500). We are 376 days since the record of November 10, 2021.
Similarly, the decline was 85% in 2014. The low point occurred 407 days before the memorable bull run towards $20,000.
Finally, the 2018 drawdown was 84%. It had taken 364 days for the BTC to reach its bottom and start to rise.
If the past is of any use, the resumption of the rise may be soon. Anyway, there are 480 days left until the next halving.
And by the way, bitcoin usually starts its cycle before the halving which halves the amount of BTC created with each block…
Glassnode also broke an interesting chart this week. That of net profits or losses. It is carried out by calculating the difference between the purchase price and the sale price of all BTCs that have changed address during the period studied.
The following chart shows that on a net basis, BTC holders have been selling at a loss for quite some time now. The net loss was equivalent to 521,000 BTC over the past week.
Glassnode comment:
“If we compare the cumulative net loss (since the FTX bankruptcy) to the “COVID” and “LUNA” crashes which were accompanied by a decline of 44% and 39% respectively, we observe that the recent capitulation s is accompanied by a less pronounced drop in bitcoin (26%). »
In other words, we are approaching the bottom, if the latter is not already behind us. Buy low, sell high…
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