Anthropic filed its S-1 form with the American regulator on October 26, with a view to listing on the Nasdaq under the symbol ANT. However, neither the number of shares nor their price have yet been fixed. On derivatives platforms, traders are already anticipating a valuation close to $1.9 trillion.
In brief
- Anthropic is preparing its IPO on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT.
- The company has not yet set the number of shares or price range of the offering.
- Synthetic perpetual contracts suggest a valuation of $1.86 trillion to $1.88 trillion, while Polymarket assigns a 32.5% probability to a capitalization of between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion on the first day of trading.
Anthropic launches the process, but the price remains unknown
On October 26, Anthropic, PBC filed its Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company wants to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the contacts mentioned for the preliminary prospectus.
This approach formalizes the IPO project, but several steps remain to be taken. Anthropic has yet to determine the number of shares on offer and their price range. In addition, the document has not yet entered into force: the company cannot yet launch its offer on this basis alone.
The question of access to shares thus precedes that of price, as we mentioned on October 8. In the meantime, derivatives markets are putting forward their own estimates.
Nearly $1.9 trillion without official capitalization
Synthetic perpetual contracts tied to Anthropic posted an implied valuation of between $1.86 trillion and $1.88 trillion on Binance, Bitget, and other platforms on October 25-26.
This figure, however, deserves clarification. To calculate market capitalization, you must multiply the price of a stock by the total number of shares. However, Anthropic has not yet communicated the number of titles that will serve as a reference.
These contracts also do not represent company stock. They follow a synthetic index defined by each platform and do not confer any ownership rights on Anthropic. Their price therefore reflects the expectations of traders, and not an official valuation.
Polymarket refines expectations for first day of trading
On Polymarket, the contracts relate to the capitalization that Anthropic could reach from its first day on the stock market. The market devoted to the date of introduction attributes 94.5% probability of listing before December 31, 2026for a volume close to 5.8 million dollars.
Capitalization estimates are more nuanced. The bracket from 1,750 to 2,000 billion dollars has a probability of 32.5%, compared to 20.5% for that of 2,000 to 2,250 billion and 17.2% for that of 1,500 to 1,750 billion. In total, the markets estimate the chances of a capitalization exceeding $1,750 billion to be around 70%, and those of exceeding $2,000 billion to be around 38%.
The comparison with OpenAI sheds light on this listing race. Sam Altman has postponed OpenAI’s IPO until 2027, while Anthropic is moving forward with its efforts. Beyond the competition between artificial intelligence models, the two companies must also convince the markets of their financial potential.
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