Tensions between the United States and the European Union are escalating again. Donald Trump, known for his aggressive trade policy, has targeted the European trade surplus, which he describes as “enormous”. The US president-elect is threatening to impose heavy customs duties if European countries do not reduce this imbalance by significantly increasing their purchases of American oil and gas. This strategy is part of the continuity of its protectionist discourse which aims to strengthen the competitiveness of the United States on the world stage.
Clear requirements to reduce a trade imbalance
On December 20, 2024, Donald Trump published a message on his Truth network to denounce what he described as a “huge deficit” between the United States and the European Union. This trade imbalance, according to 2022 figures, amounts to $202.5 billion. To remedy this, the former US president demanded that the EU significantly increase its purchases of oil and gas from the United States. “I told the European Union that it must make up its huge deficit with the United States through large-scale acquisition of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it's customs tariffs all the way!!! ”, he declaredwhich leaves little room for ambiguity.
This position is based on precise data. US exports to Europe total $350.8 billion, while European imports reach $553.3 billion. Faced with these demands, European leaders remain reserved. Indeed, they emphasize that their economic diversification strategy includes free trade agreements with other partners, such as the recent pact signed with the Mercosur countries. This discreet response demonstrates a desire to preserve commercial balances in order to avoid direct confrontation.
Donald Trump's strategy fits into a logic already observed during his previous presidency, where tariff threats served to rebalance trade that he considered unfavorable. Indeed, the use of customs taxes as an economic lever had notably targeted China and other trading partners. His return to the political scene therefore revives speculation on the evolution of American economic diplomacy, which once again seems to be moving towards exacerbated protectionism.
An ultimatum with global consequences
Donald Trump's announcements are not limited to the European Union and also target other major economic powers. Among the main targets are Canada, Mexico and China, already accustomed to trade tensions with the United States. The US president-elect has threatened these countries with imposing taxes of up to 25% on their exports to the US market. These measures, according to him, respond to a desire to protect the economic interests of the United States in the face of what he describes as a “flood” of foreign products.
However, the consequences of these initiatives risk going beyond American borders. Economists agree that such tariffs could exacerbate tensions between nations, but also contribute to a rise in inflationary pressures globally. As many central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, strive to contain inflation, these policies risk further complicating this goal. Jerome Powell, president of the American Central Bank, has also expressed his concerns. He spoke of the “climate of uncertainty” that these measures could generate on economic projections, already revised upwards for the years to come.
Despite its desire to strengthen the competitiveness of the United States, these protectionist initiatives could also trigger trade responses from the partners concerned. An escalation of these tensions could affect global supply chains, already weakened by recent crises. Observers fear that these policies could lead to fragmentation of international trade, which could undermine established trade relationships and accentuate overall economic imbalances.
These trade threats clearly reflect Donald Trump's intention to reposition the economic interests of the United States at the center of global trade. However, this approach raises fundamental questions about its long-term viability, particularly in terms of diplomatic relations. As the European Union explores solutions to respond to these pressures, the specter of trade retaliation increases uncertainty. In a context already marked by geopolitical tensions and economic imbalances, these initiatives could provoke a profound redefinition of global partnerships and have a lasting impact on the stability of international trade.
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