Bitcoin below $86,000, capital flows to Bitcoin Cash and Zcash

Bitcoin fell back below $86,000 this Wednesday September 23 while capital moved towards Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Zcash (ZEC). At the same time, on-chain data tells a different story with BlackRock adding $1.02 billion to its IBIT ETF in just four sessions.

Bitcoin falls below $86,000 and capital goes elsewhere

Bitcoin returned to its highest level of the week on Monday at $87,300 and then stumbled over it. Result :

• Ambush sellers;
• Retreat to $85,500 during the session, before stabilizing around $85,800-86,000.

Nothing dramatic in itself, but the money did not sit idly by. It moved to Bitcoin Cash which benefited first with +28% in 24 hours, up to almost $349. This, after the announcement by CME Group that it will list futures on BCH and Uniswap from October 19. Also, Zcash follows with +9%, at around $1,646. XRP managed to gain 3% around $1.59, while TRX fell 2%.

Analysts see this as a temporary shift of crypto capital to altcoins rather than a flight from bitcoin. Especially since this type of rotation has in the past slowed down BTC without ever reversing the underlying trend because the dips attract new buyers who had remained on the sidelines until then.

Oil and US rates move Wall Street

Bitcoin’s decline is not playing out in a bubble as WTI oil has rebounded more than $2 from its session lows of $90.93 per barrel. This, against a backdrop of concerns relayed by the Wall Street Journal around a possible American embargo on diesel exports. This movement therefore pushed the 2-year US Treasury yield to a new cycle high of 4.79%. Faced with this, the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have risen to more than 53%, which is a bad sign.

BlackRock continues to buy bitcoin

While everyone watches the price of BTC falter, BlackRock is accumulating. According to data from Arkham, the IBIT ETF received $1.02 billion in inflows over the last four trading sessions. Over the last 12 to 16 hours, BlackRock’s wallet has received a series of almost identical transfers of 300 BTC, or $25.9 million each. They come from the Coinbase Prime hot wallet, at regular intervals. It is therefore not an isolated order, but a rhythm of accumulation. In total, BlackRock’s crypto portfolio now weighs $77.6 billion, including 787,075 BTC, or $67.77 billion at current prices.

Add to this, a technical signal spotted by on-chain analyst Rafael (@n3ocortex), on the 30-day moving average of bitcoin which has just returned above the 50-week moving average, for the first time since 2023. These crossovers have often preceded prolonged bullish phases. Nothing guaranteed, obviously because a chart has never prevented a crash. But between institutional purchases which do not weaken and a technical signal which has not reappeared for two years, the decline below 86,000 dollars seems less like an escape and more like a simple test of nerves.

What to remember about BTC below $86,000?

• Bitcoin falls to $85,500 after hitting $87,300, the rotation benefits Bitcoin Cash (+28%) and Zcash (+9%).
• Oil, the bond yield at 4.79% and a bet on a Fed rate hike in October are pushing for caution in the short term.
• BlackRock injects $1.02 billion into its IBIT ETF in four sessions, bringing its portfolio to 787,075 BTC.
• The crossing of the 30-day moving average above the 50-week, not seen since 2023, often precedes bullish phases.

The price of bitcoin is faltering, the rotation towards altcoins is making noise and the macro context is not helping matters. But as long as on-chain feeds show BlackRock buying BTC and technical signals remain green, it will be difficult to call it a reversal. To be followed in the next sessions… very closely.