According to Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, the bullish cycle of bitcoin would multiply its price by three to five, compared to more than ten during certain historical phases. This forecast is based on less extreme volatility and a significant institutional presence, but it does not represent a guaranteed price target.
In brief
- Ki Young Ju anticipates a less explosive Bitcoin bull cycle, with a potential return of 3-5x.
- A starting point at $58,000 would place bitcoin between $174,000 and $290,000, without constituting an official target.
- The increase in capitalization and the arrival of institutional investors could reduce volatility compared to previous cycles.
- On-chain data supports the idea of a more mature market, with potentially shallower corrections.
- These indicators do not guarantee any price trajectory, and the scenario will depend in particular on flows and long-term holders.
CryptoQuant predicts a less explosive bull cycle
On September 22, Ki Young Ju gave a presentation on a scenario in which the progression of bitcoin would remain lower than the explosions observed during its first cycles.
He therefore emphasized:
I expect a return of 3 to 5 times from this bull cycle, rather than another parabolic increase of more than 10 times.
The head of CryptoQuant think that the expansion of the market reduces the influence of speculative capital. When bitcoin’s valuation was lower, limited inflows were enough to trigger large rallies. Then the outputs resulted in corrections of up to 80%.
Its scenario is based on four essential developments:
- The price could increase three to five times during the cycle;
- The next bear market could cause a shallower correction;
- Institutional investors would limit certain speculative movements;
- Higher capitalization could reduce the effect of each new flow.
Such progression involves compromise. Bitcoin might offer fewer parabolic gains, but it would also be less exposed to the crashes seen in previous cycles. Ki Young Ju sees this stability as a factor capable of attracting more capital in the long term.
The low point at $58,000 changes the calculation
This publication by Ki Young Ju does not explicitly indicate the price from which its multiple should be applied. Therefore, it would be misleading to directly multiply the current price, close to 86,000 dollars, by three or five.
By the end of June, bitcoin had hit a low point near $58,000. Taking this level as the start of a new cycle, a threefold increase could yield almost $174,000. Multiplying by five should lead to $290,000. This range represents a simple mathematical translation of the scenario, and not a target officially set by CryptoQuant.
A price of $174,000 could surpass the record high of $126,080 reached in October 2025 by almost 38%. Bitcoin has already gained around 49% since its June low. Part of the envisaged yield would therefore already have materialized if this date actually served as a reference.
Furthermore, a price multiplied by three is equivalent to an increase of 200% and not 300%. Likewise, a fivefold increase constitutes a 400% increase. Such a distinction avoids overestimating the scope of the forecast.
Bitcoin Volatility Gradually Declines
This analysis from Ki Young Ju joins a trend documented by Fidelity Digital Assets. Thus, in a study published in 2024, the company had observed a gradual decline in the volatility of bitcoin as its capitalization increased. Logically, identical capital produces less effect as it enters a deeper and deeper market.
However, market size does not explain everything. New analysis from Glassnode attributes approximately 19% of fluctuations in trend-adjusted volatility to supply held by long-term investors. This illiquid offer would justify nearly 12% compared to only 3% for capitalization.
When many bitcoins remain locked up in long-term wallets, the volume available for transactions is reduced. This situation can stabilize the price when supply and demand remain balanced. It can also amplify movements if demand increases suddenly or if former holders start to sell out again.
On-chain indicators do not guarantee the increase
Ki Young Ju also bases his scenario on CryptoQuant’s profit and loss index. Its 365-day moving average shows lower highs than in previous cycles, but also more resilient lows. The MVRV ratio would have remained above one, including u, during the recent correction. Thus, the holders had collectively retained a market value greater than their estimated acquisition cost.
The realized capitalization is also increasing, which CryptoQuant interprets as the arrival of new capital. From then on, sales of large historical addresses would have slowed down, while many important players in the futures markets would have built up bullish positions near the low point.
These indicators support the hypothesis of a more mature cycle, however they do not validate an immediate trajectory towards 174,000 or 290,000 dollars. The annual average of the profitability index remains below zero and continued to decline. The evolution of institutional flows, volatility and transfers from long-term holders could therefore determine whether the CryptoQuant scenario is confirmed.
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