Bitcoin continues to unleash passions. Just yesterday, crossing the $100,000 mark was utopian, and yet, the flagship crypto demonstrates once again that it has not finished surprising. While some traders are now considering a target around $138,000, others are highlighting an unexpected return of the “Coinbase premium” to a neutral level. Should we see this as the start of a new outbreak or a simple respite before the storm?
A cap of $138,000: ambitious dream or near reality?
After briefly exceeding $100,000, Bitcoin seems to be looking for a second wind. There are voices saying that it could reach $138,000 by February, based on the history of previous cycles.
Proponents of this thesis compare the current dynamic to that of 2021, when a powerful bullish rally foiled all pessimistic predictions.
However, the signals are not all green. The retail market is discreet. Transactions below $10,000 have declined since bitcoin hit $108,000, indicating some reluctance on the part of small investors. At the same time, analysts like Cryptochimp dare to bet on even higher highs, around $200,000.
This double reading maintains the vagueness: on the one hand, the optimists predict an imminent outbreak; on the other, the cautious fear a major event – a “black swan” – likely to disrupt everything.
The fact remains that confidence in Bitcoin is not weakening: more than 90% of the circulating supply is already in a profit situation, which limits the temptation to sell massively.
The Coinbase premium stalled: a strong signal for bitcoin?
The “Coinbase premium” is a key indicator for tracking the mood of American traders. When it is high, this means that buyers on Coinbase are paying more for Bitcoin than elsewhere, reflecting a national enthusiasm. Conversely, when the premium sinks into the negative, this indicates relative disinterest.
Recently, this premium has returned to a neutral threshold, reflecting a renewed sense of calm. IT Tech, an anonymous analyst, sees this as proof that American institutional and individual investors are regaining confidence. However, it should be remembered that large players often favor over-the-counter (OTC) channels, which are not very visible on public charts.
This repositioning of the premium is accompanied by a paradox. As individuals slow down their purchases, the resurgence of this American confidence could signal a market seeking stability. If institutional demand picks up, Bitcoin could rebound. Conversely, prolonged stagnation around $100,000 could reveal that it is running out of steam, opening the door to a correction.
Between bold predictions at $138,000 and subtle adjustments to the Coinbase premium, Bitcoin continues its course in a fog where optimism and caution intertwine. The next few weeks will be decisive in gauging the tenacity of the market and determining whether the milestone set by proponents of a new record will be reached or whether it will turn out to be just another mirage in the ever-changing history of the cryptosphere. However, an altseason is on the horizon.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
