Young Taiwanese people enjoy life as if nothing had happened. However, the threat of a Chinese invasion has never been more present. And when the Chinese Communist Party launches the offensive, we will officially fall into a Third World War.
China puts pressure on Taiwan
Chinese military exercises October 14, 2024simulating a blockade of Taiwan, marked a new turning point in the crisis, with China appearing unstoppable despite Trump's upcoming sanctions. This fourth demonstration of force majeure since August 2022 is part of an increasingly aggressive intimidation strategy.
Chinese strategy is not limited to military demonstrations alone. Beijing deploys a full arsenal of destabilization tacticsraising fears of 4 years of dictatorship starting in November : rupture of submarine cables, sand dredging, drone overflights, boat incursions. Air and naval patrols regularly cross the strait's midline, a once-respected unofficial border
A conflict with deep roots
The tension goes back to 1949when the Republic of China regime retreated to Taiwan after the communist victory. For Beijing, the island is an integral part of the Chinese nation. This demand resulted in several major crises, notably in 1995-1996 during the first Taiwanese presidential election by universal suffrage.
In 2005, the Chinese anti-secession law formalized the possibility of military intervention if peaceful means of reunification were exhausted. Since then, China has accumulated an impressive arsenal: kamikaze drones by the millions, hundreds of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and an expanding navy.
The vice strategy
Rather than a direct, costly and risky invasion, Beijing favors a strategy of attrition. This “gray zone” approach aims to gradually erode Taiwanese resistance through constant pressure. The recent encirclement maneuvers demonstrate that the Chinese People's Republic feels in a position of strength.
The Taiwanese president maintains a firm stance. On the national holiday of October 10, he reaffirmed that neither side of the strait should be subordinate to the other. This declaration, described as “independence” by Beijingprovoked a new military escalation.
Taiwan facing the Chinese empire
The paradox is striking: Taiwan is a prosperous and peaceful democracy. Its inhabitants live happy, free and productive. The streets are safe, the cities are clean, and the economy is thriving. There is no racial conflict, no religious tension, no seething political anger.
However, powerful men in Beijing could decide to destroy everything by force. China has other means of pressure than military force : diplomacy, economics and cognitive warfare are used to achieve its objectives.
Beijing has mastered the art of flirting with the red line without crossing it.
America lagging behind China
The United States, once the guarantor of regional stability, seems increasingly withdrawn. Their support remains crucial for Taiwanbut the island knows that it must rely on itself above all. The day an offensive would be launched, it would be too late for an external response.
While Beijing is making rapid progress in strategic areas like robotics and artificial intelligence, America is bogged down in its internal divisions. This political paralysis contrasts with the Chinese technological dynamism.
The resistance is organized
Faced with these threats, Taiwan does not remain passive. The island is developing a deterrence strategy and tries to convince Beijing to reconsider its ambitions by highlighting the disastrous consequences of a conflict. The two main Taiwanese political parties, despite their differences, unite to defend the sovereignty of the island.
Taiwan's Minister of Digital Affairs compares the Chinese threat to earthquakes: the Taiwanese have gotten used to living with it. But this apparent serenity could turn out to be dangerous.
Taiwan's future is up in the air
The post-Cold War world is coming to an end. China's imperial ambitions shape a more dangerous worldwhere the nuclear proliferation and arms races threaten global stability. The conquest of Taiwan could trigger a chain reaction with unpredictable consequences.
The big question may no longer be whether China will invade the island, but when and how. The multiplication of tensions and provocations paints a worrying picture. Between diplomacy and military threat, the balance is fragile. The destiny of this democratic island could well become the symbol of the new world that is emerging before our eyes.
While the Chinese army advances off its coast, Taiwan continues its daily life. The threat of an invasion of Taiwan has never been more concrete, and the year 2025 could mark a decisive turning point in the island's history. Beyond Taiwan, the future of the world order is being played out in this strait, echoing fears of a Third World War.
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