Bitcoin at $112,000? Here's what could really boost the rise

Bitcoin fell by more than 22% in one month, casting doubt on its dynamics. However, behind this decline, several signals converge towards a possible return to the symbolic threshold of $112,000. As markets churn, institutional and retail investors are watching four key factors that could reignite the uptrend. In a context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tension on derivative markets, the scenario of a rebound can no longer be ruled out.

The four levers of a potential rebound

While the flagship asset goes back above $86,000 despite a strong dollar, the return of bitcoin beyond $112,000 could rely primarily on global inflationary dynamics and possible changes in American monetary policy.

A key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds. This asset resumed its upward trajectory after testing technical support at 110.50.

Four factors could restore momentum to bitcoin. These levers are at the same time macroeconomic, technical and structural:

• The interest rate and monetary policy: the maintenance of the key rates of the American Federal Reserve above 3.5% until 2026, anticipated by the markets at 78%, contributes to an environment of low real rates which could favor the adoption of alternative assets such as bitcoin;

• Inflation and the bond market: The iShares TIPS Bond ETF Index, which reflects inflation expectations, is showing a recovery. This could signal a favorable environment for an increase in risky assets;

• Convergence with traditional markets: a potential inclusion of companies exposed to bitcoin in broader stock indices, notably via adjustments by MSCI, could pave the way for increased institutional investments;

• Asymmetry in derivatives markets: the options market shows a strong imbalance in favor of put options, which Julius Baer describes as “excess bearish coverage”. A correction of this asymmetry could precipitate an upward movement, especially as the December deadline approaches.

These signals, although still uncertain, reveal a favorable dynamic if the four factors converge.

A bullish scenario hampered by market caution

Beyond macroeconomic considerations, internal developments in the bitcoin ecosystem could also play a determining role in price dynamics.

One of the major uncertainties concerns the position of the MSCI, one of the indices most followed by global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation with investors on whether to exclude certain companies with heavy exposure to bitcoin, including Strategy (MSTR), from its indices.

This decisionexpected on January 15, 2026, could impact nearly $9 billion in passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, responded by saying: “Strategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly traded company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy”.

At the same time, the derivatives market is signaling a clear lack of confidence among traders. Thus, put (put) options on BTC are currently trading at a 10% premium compared to equivalent call (call) options.

This imbalance is interpreted as persistent pressure on market sentiment. An easing of this imbalance towards a premium of 5% or less would be necessary to envisage a return of optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion in BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could cause significant volatility, or even serve as a catalyst for a new phase of accumulation.

The price of bitcoin oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes of technical recovery. If the signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the strength of a possible rebound towards $112,000. Caution remains the order of the market as a whole.