Three influential analysts believe that bitcoin has found its bottom after falling below $60,000 in July. The return of the price to around $65,000 fuels their optimism. However, the history of the market and the weight of the lever do not yet allow us to declare victory.
In brief
- Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe and Merlijn The Trader published bullish scenarios on August 7, 2026.
- The sustainable crossing of $65,000 remains the most cited technical threshold to confirm an acceleration.
- Large portfolio accumulation supports the rebound, while leverage and bitcoin history maintain a risk of a relapse.
Bitcoin, three analysts find themselves around $65,000
The scenario of a trough does not come out of nowhere. As of August 4, 10x Research estimated that bitcoin could confirm a market low point as early as August, subject to preserving its technical support.
Three days later, CryptoPotato noted an unusual convergence between Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe and Merlijn The Trader.
Ali Martinez slices bluntly: “The bitcoin bull market is here. » The media reports that the analyst is relying on improving on-chain data, the waning of selling pressure and a buy signal from TD Sequential on the July monthly chart.
This technical indicator has a series of candles in order to identify a possible exhaustion of the current trend. He had already reported the 2022 low, but no indicator produces an automatic result.
Michaël van de Poppe remains more conditional. On August 7, he described bitcoin still locked in its consolidation zone and deemed it necessary to exceed $65,000 to accelerate towards $67,000.
Merlijn The Trader is more categorical: according to him, the three tests of the same support in the third quarter reproduce the structure observed in 2023 and 2024 before an increase in the fourth quarter.
Nuance matters. These three readings are not based on the same method and do not constitute collective confirmation. However, they tell the same thing: as long as the support holds, the market can transform its long hesitation into a recovery.
Whale purchases give weight to the bullish scenario
The accumulation reinforces the floor thesis, without yet validating it. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added more than 20,000 BTC accumulated since July 29, according to Santiment data relayed by Tremplin.io. As of August 7, this stockpile was worth approximately $1.2 billion.
The movement has a simple reading. Large holders absorb some of the supply while the price remains stuck below its resistance. If sellers become scarce at the same time, even moderate demand may be enough to push bitcoin higher. This is why Ali Martinez associates long-term accumulation with a reduction in selling pressure.
The price also briefly regained the advantage over the monitored threshold. CoinGecko was showing $65,198 on August 10 at 6:47 UTC. This passage is not enough: Van de Poppe is calling for a clear break of the recent high, not a simple foray above $65,000.
The market therefore has visible fuel, but ignition remains uncertain. A strong close above the zone, accompanied by spot buying, would strengthen the rally. A rejection would immediately put the July floor back under pressure.
The history of bitcoin and leverage prevents declaring victory
The counter-scenario is in two figures. THE historical data from CoinGecko place bitcoin at $124,739.81 on October 7, 2025, then at $58,566.09 on July 1, 2026. The drop between these two points reaches 53.05%. A rebound towards $65,000 therefore repairs a small part of the fall, not the entire trend.
CryptoPotato also recalls a familiar mechanism: bitcoin often surprises when consensus becomes too comfortable. The big rebounds sometimes started with extreme mistrust, while excess optimism preceded violent corrections. This historical observation alone does not predict anything. Above all, it invites us to distinguish an encouraging signal from a verdict.
Leverage adds more immediate fragility. On Binance, futures volumes recently reached $57.82 billion, compared to $6.08 billion on the spot market. These products allow you to multiply exposure with less capital, but they also amplify losses and forced liquidations. A breakout can therefore accelerate in both directions.
In short, the accumulation of whales, the return above $65,000 and the calming of sales draw a credible floor. However, the weight of Binance futures and the extent of the correction since October leave the market under tension. The bullish scenario is gaining ground. It has yet to survive the price test.
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