Bitcoin briefly crossed its average cost of production, estimated at $85,000 by JPMorgan, after 280 days below this threshold. This excess would reduce the forced sales of mining specialists, however the return of the price to around 84,100 dollars makes this relief still uncertain.
In brief
- JPMorgan estimates the average cost of producing bitcoin at $85,000.
- BTC briefly exceeded this threshold after 280 days below it.
- Maintaining above $85,000 could reduce forced selling by mining companies.
- The decline in hashrate and difficulty helps the network rebalance.
- Pressure on margins is also pushing some miners towards artificial intelligence.
The cost of bitcoin mining goes back to $85,000
JPMorgan now estimates the average cost necessary to produce one bitcoin at nearly $85,000, while 20% of companies are in the red according to the bank. This amount mainly takes into account the price of electricity, the efficiency of the equipment, the hashrate and the difficulty of mining.
BTC crossed this level during its recent rally, before falling slightly below. During the month of June, the banking institution still estimated its production cost at $78,000, while the crypto was around $62,500.
The essential figures reveal the extent of the tensions experienced by the sector:
- Bitcoin remained below its estimated production cost for 280 days;
- The previous comparable period lasted approximately 224 days in 2018;
- Nearly 15-20% of mining equipment was unprofitable in the first quarter;
- Listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026;
- The price returned to around $84,250 after crossing $85,000.
The production cost constitutes a sector average. An operator with cheap electricity and recent machines can remain profitable below this threshold. Conversely, a mining company that uses old equipment can lose money even when bitcoin exceeds $85,000.
A higher price would reduce forced sales
When the price of bitcoin remains below production expenses, mining companies must find other sources of liquidity. They can use their reserves, borrow, raise capital or sell more BTC to finance electricity and maintenance.
JPMorgan analysts under the supervision of Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimate :
If this new context continues, it should relieve mining specialists and reduce the risk of forced sales.
The duration of the excess therefore matters more than the simple passage above 85,000 dollars. A few hours beyond this threshold are insufficient to restore margins or modify companies’ investment decisions.
During the first quarter, listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC to finance their operations. This volume exceeded their cumulative disposals over all of 2025, according to data provided by JPMorgan.
Bitcoin network adapts to falling margins
Less competitive mining companies have already moved their machines to regions where electricity is cheaper. Others have sold their old equipment, placed certain installations on standby or recycled models that had become ineffective.
These withdrawals reduce the information power mobilized to secure bitcoin. JPMorgan believes that the hashrate has fallen by almost 19% since its peak in October 2025. Mining difficulty is estimated to have fallen by almost 15% over the same period.
Such a mechanism allows the network to rebalance itself directly. As soon as machines are stopped, bitcoin periodically adjusts its difficulty. Mining specialists who are still active therefore have a higher probability of validating a block with the same computing power.
In the first quarter, CoinShares thought that machines less efficient than an Antminer S19 XP were becoming loss-making with electricity billed at six cents per kilowatt hour. This situation potentially affected 15 to 20% of the global fleet.
The cost of production can act as a soft floor, according to JMorgan. However, it does not guarantee automatic rebound. Bitcoin can remain below this level for a long time if mining specialists reduce their costs, shut down their machines or accept temporary losses.
Artificial Intelligence Hijacks Mining Capacity
Pressure on margins may also accelerate the conversion of certain mining centers into infrastructure for artificial intelligence. As a result, AI companies offer more predictable contracts and can pay more for quick access to power, cooling, and data centers.
Many listed mining groups have therefore reduced their hashrate growth objectives. This reorientation limits competition between companies in the sector and would slow down the future increase in production costs, outside of halving periods.
It also participates in changing the sector. According to JPMorgan, listed companies are losing some of their weight compared to private and sovereign operators, who are less visible in official data.
To confirm an improvement, bitcoin will therefore have to remain above $85,000. The progression of hashrate, difficulty and sales made by mining companies will then make it possible to determine whether this threshold marks a real return to profitability.
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