After a year 2024 marked by the influx of ETFs and institutional enthusiasm, the signals of running out of steam are multiplying. According to CryptoQuant, demand has contracted significantly since October, confirming the entry into a bearish phase. Between the decline in incoming flows, the breakdown of technical support and the reluctance of investors, the market is showing clear signs of a shift. A turning point that analysts are observing closely, at a time when the cycle could change pace.
In brief
- The upward momentum of Bitcoin is running out of steam after a year 2024 marked by the arrival of ETFs and institutional enthusiasm.
- CryptoQuant reports a sharp drop in demand since October 2025, indicating a possible reversal of the cycle.
- Three successive waves fueled the bull market: ETFs, US elections, and adoption by listed companies.
- Investors are now operating in a climate dominated by fear, wait-and-see and increased volatility.
A fall in demand for bitcoin: indicators turn red
According to CryptoQuant, apparent demand for bitcoin has slowed significantly since the start of the fourth quarter of the year, as the king crypto collapses after false hope of a rebound.
“Demand growth has been below trend since the beginning of October”, affirm analysts. They specify that this dynamic marks the end of a sustained upward cycle. This observation suggests that “Most of this cycle’s incremental demand has already been realized, removing a key pillar of price support”.
The analysis also identifies three major waves that have punctuated this bullish cycle: a first in January 2024 with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, a second driven by the results of the American presidential election, and a third linked to speculation around listed companies accumulating BTC in their treasuries.
This decline in dynamics is confirmed by several objective indicators :
- Disengagement of institutional investors: around 24,000 BTC were withdrawn from ETFs during this fourth quarter, according to CryptoQuant. A behavior diametrically opposed to that observed during the same period in 2024, marked by net incoming flows;
- Falling funding rates: Perpetual futures funding rates have fallen to their lowest level since December 2023, reflecting a clear weakening of leveraged speculative appetite;
- A major technical break: bitcoin has broken downward its 365-day moving average, currently located around $98,172, which constitutes a “critical dynamic support level”.
Taken together, this on-chain data reinforces the hypothesis of a cycle reversal and places investors face to face with a market now deprived of its fundamental drivers.
Psychological and macroeconomic dynamics to monitor
If technical and behavioral signals show a clear disengagement of investors, the medium-term outlook remains more mixed.
Some analysts continue to anticipate a price recovery in 2026, particularly in the event of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve. This hypothesis is based on the possibility of a drop in interest rates, which would favor risky assets like cryptos. However, for now, the consensus remains timid. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, only 22.1% of investors expect a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 2026.
On the political level, pressure is also intensifying. President Donald Trump reportedly tried to force Jerome Powell's hand by threatening him with dismissal, with the aim of accelerating the rate cut before his term expires in May 2026. Such instability could paradoxically fuel further uncertainty in the markets.
As for overall investor sentiment, it remains clearly pessimistic. CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear & Greed Index camps firmly in the fear zone. A mixed situation which, historically, sometimes precedes the most unexpected rebounds, but nothing guarantees such a scenario for the moment.
The slowdown in demand and unfavorable technical signals are now weighing on the price of bitcoin, which is entering a phase of uncertainty. If the market confirms this downward dynamic, the coming months could redefine the balances of the current cycle and impose a more cautious reading of the short-term outlook.
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