Bitcoin RSI Nears Three-Year Lows Against Gold

Bitcoin is faltering against gold. The BTC / Between tension and hope, a key indicator resurfaces, and could change everything.

The return of a major technical signal

The BTC /

This decline alerts technical analysts, especially as it comes while gold remains close to its highest historical highs. For Michaël van de Poppe, recognized trader and analyst, this threshold represents much more than a simple price level: “The last time markets bottomed was also when the BTC/USD ratio against gold bottomed. One of them is overvalued. The other is undervalued ». He claims that gold is currently overvalued, while bitcoin has reportedly entered a potential buying zone.

Van de Poppe's technical arguments are based on several precise indicatorsincluding the following:

• The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the BTC/XAU ratio fell to 29.5, which places the indicator in the oversold zone, traditionally interpreted as a potential reversal signal;

• A bullish divergence is emerging on the daily time frame, that is to say that the RSI rises while the price continues to fall, a pattern often observed before short-term recoveries;

• This technical configuration is reminiscent of those that preceded major rebounds during previous bitcoin bear cycles.

According to this reading, the current level would not signal a collapse, but rather a forming market bottom, likely to pave the way for a gradual reversal. A cautious hypothesis, certainly, but one that resonates with those who consider bitcoin to be structurally undervalued at present.

A trend break or a simple consolidation?

If some perceive this drop as a market trough, others see it as a worrying signal of rupture.

The Wealthmanager expert, specialized in macrofinancial analyses, insists that “the last bitcoin bear market officially started when we lost this support”. For the latter, the 20 ounce threshold is not only a technical point, but a symbolic pivot between bull and bear market. “I expect us to consolidate here for a while, but a breakout is likely in the coming weeks”he warns.

Another cautious voice is that of trader Ted Pillows, who draws attention to a distinct point: the loss of a long-term uptrend in the BTC/XAU ratio. On technical charts, this break is visible and, according to him, it marks a potential transition to a regime of lower performance for bitcoin against gold.

This change in dynamics could be explained by gold remaining close to its historic highs, in an uncertain macroeconomic climate where investors are primarily looking for stability.

While technical signals suggest a possible rebound, caution remains in order. American monetary tightening is slowing the progress of bitcoin, reinforcing the attractiveness of gold. In this uncertain context, the behavior of the BTC/XAU ratio over the coming weeks could offer valuable insights into the evolution of investor preferences.