Bitcoin: Why the Clarity Act will (probably) not change anything

At a time when bitcoin and the entire crypto market are in decline, more and more analysts are talking openly about future falls. Some even evoke cataclysmic scenarios for 2026. While prices crumble, political and legislative announcements are multiplying, as if they could plug an already wide gap. But should we really believe that the Clarity Act will be enough to reverse the current trend? Nothing is less certain.

Clarity Act: crypto regulation without moon promise

One of the most visible supporters of this law remains David Sacks, the “Czar of crypto”. On X, he recently explained that he had a constructive exchange with presidents Tim Scott and John Boozman. According to him, the latter would have confirmed that a review of the Clarity Act is planned for January, marking concrete progress towards the adoption of this expected legislation in the crypto industry.

The text, supported by several Republican elected officials, aims to clarify the legal treatment of digital assets in the United States.

But on the market side, the enthusiasm is quite different. Famous trader Peter Brandt immediately tempered expectations in a clear statement :

Is this a shocking macroeconomic development? No. It's necessary, of course, but not something that should redefine value. The fact that an asset is regulated, especially an asset that the most ardent investors never wanted to see regulated, is not a spectacular event.

Brandt adds that long-time investors never wanted too much regulation, making the impact of the Clarity Act more symbolic than structural. Same story with John Glover (Ledn), for whom “the effect is already integrated into the courses”. Most major cryptos, from Ethereum to Solana, follow the same inertia: slight increase upon announcement, then return to calm.

The law could improve readability for institutional investors, but it does not offer an immediate response to the volatility of bitcoin.

Bitcoin: a fall predicted against a backdrop of broken cycles

More worrying than the law are the graphic analyses. Peter Brandt, again, affirms it: bitcoin has broken its historic parabolic curve. In simple language, this means that the bullish cycle started after the last halving seems to have reached its ceiling. BTC, which rose to $126,000, fell below $88,000, suggesting a possible collapse towards $25,000according to its projections.

History gives some credence to this hypothesis: previous bull runs have all been followed by declines of 70 to 80%. Investors ignore this at their peril. BTC's progression is not linear and remains linked to powerful cyclical forces. Actual adoption is stagnating, volumes are declining and altcoins (XRP, ADA, DOGE) are silently suffering from the same evil: the absence of growth drivers outside of the media hype.

Faced with this graphic and historical reality, no regulation – no matter how well written – will be able to avoid a correction if the technical signals are validated in the months to come. The Clarity law? A balm, not a cure.

What the regulation doesn't say: adoption, trust and use

Legislative texts can reassure crypto market players, but they do not necessarily increase prices. The real question lies elsewhere: can the Clarity Act really trigger mass adoption? Hard to believe it. Peter Brandt explains this clearly in a analysis published on OneSafe. According to him, the value of bitcoin will depend above all on its ability to be integrated into everyday finance.

It is not the law that will create this dynamic, but the real use that people will make of BTC.

The crypto market is no longer in its euphoric phase. He is waiting for concrete use cases. And even with clear regulation, capital will not return until there is confidence, transparency and stability. We are probably witnessing a forced maturity of the sector, where only solid projects will survive. Altcoins, NFTs, DeFi: everyone is affected.

Points to remember in the crypto fog

• Current bitcoin price: $88,104, down from its peak at $126,000;
• Possible technical floor according to Brandt: $25,000;
• Target date for the Clarity Act: next January, without guarantee of vote;
• Historical cycles: each halving preceded a rise… followed by a collapse;
• Altcoins: still in strong correlation with BTC, without autonomous dropout.

While enthusiasts argue over the real scope of the Clarity law, some actors prefer to take out the calculator. Giant Fidelity sees a floor at $65,000 for bitcoin. A figure that could act as a beacon in an ocean of uncertainties. It is neither a prophecy nor a signal to buy, but a cold, lucid guide to navigate an increasingly rough sea.