Bitcoin fell below $69,000 after another wave of liquidations, while Ether broke $2,000. However, the main danger no longer comes only from the lever. ETFs are emptying and the supply of stablecoins is declining, depriving the market of the capital needed to absorb sales.
In brief
- Bitcoin falls below $69,000, while Ether falls below $2,000.
- Liquidations reach $1.41 billion in 24 hours, mainly on bullish positions.
- US Bitcoin ETFs record $1.44 billion in withdrawals in five consecutive sessions.
- The supply of major stablecoins falls by $14.2 billion in 30 days, reducing available liquidity.
- The threshold of 68,000 dollars becomes a decisive zone, without guaranteeing a rebound.
Fall below $69,000 takes away bullish positions
On November 12, bitcoin had already reached a three-month low of $71,317, compared to $1,983 for Ether. The total capitalization of the crypto market then fell from 2940 billion dollars at the beginning of October to 2390 billion, a destruction of around 550 billion dollars.
The decline accelerated the following night. BTC fell below $69,000 on November 13, bringing liquidations to approximately $1.41 billion over twenty-four hours. Multiple numbers illustrate the extent of debt reduction:
- Around 172,900 positions were liquidated;
- Bullish positions represent $1.26 billion, or 89% of the total;
- Bitcoin concentrates $742 million in liquidations;
- Ether records approximately $251 million in closed positions;
- More than 745 million were liquidated in just four hours.
Bitcoin alone accounted for more than half of the losses, with 96% of bullish positions among closed contracts. Ether had a comparable imbalance, as 90.4% of its liquidations also came from bullish bets.
These forced closures accelerated the decline. When a trader no longer has sufficient margin, the platform automatically sells their position. An initial decline then causes liquidations, which add new supply to the market and push other positions towards their closing threshold.
After leverage, the market faces the absence of buyers
A wave of liquidations can sometimes clean up the market. It eliminates the weakest positions, reduces leverage and allows cash buyers to regain control. This time, the problem lies precisely in their absence.
US bitcoin ETFs suffered five consecutive sessions of withdrawals through November 11, for around $1.44 billion. The last available session showed 299.8 million exits, including 269.7 million for BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum products were also heading towards a seventh negative week, with more than 2.1 billion withdrawn over the period.
The weakness also affects internal market liquidity. The supply of the main dollar-backed stablecoins decreased by $14.2 billion in thirty days. The apparent demand for bitcoins, for its part, would have fallen by 284,000 BTC.
This contraction is more than just a technical indicator. Stablecoins constitute a reserve of capital that can be immediately mobilized on crypto platforms. When their supply decreases, investors have less room to maneuver.
The market thus goes through two successive phases. Derivatives first transformed the decline into a cascade of forced sales. Now, even when these positions are closed, spot purchases, ETFs and stablecoins do not yet provide sufficient demand to sustainably stabilize prices.
Glassnode observed already that the spot CVD had become negative despite an increase in volumes. In other words, activity increases, but sellers remain more aggressive than buyers. Futures open interest also remained high, a sign that the cleansing of leverage was still only partial.
The $68,000 threshold becomes a liquidity test
The break of the 200-day moving average, located around $73,200, shifted the focus towards the $68,000 area. The liquidation charts showed a concentration of positions likely to attract the price.
However, it does not constitute guaranteed support. A liquidation map identifies areas where contracts could be closed. It does not measure the quantity of purchases actually available to defend a price. If capital inflows remain low, BTC can cross this zone without building a sustainable floor there.
A level of $52,700 from CVDD is also mentioned, an indicator based on the value and age of bitcoins moved on the blockchain. The previous lows of 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022 formed near this measurement. However, this figure does not constitute a forecast. CVDD evolves with on-chain activity and can rise without bitcoin necessarily falling that far.
The next stabilization will therefore depend less on an isolated graphic threshold than on three simultaneous reversals: the cessation of ETF outflows, the resumption of the supply of stablecoins and the return of net spot purchases. Until these flows improve, liquidation of bullish positions will not be enough to form a bottom. It will simply leave behind a less indebted market, but still deprived of buyers.
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