In the unforgiving world of decentralized predictive markets, the French crypto trader, known under the pseudonym “Theo4”, has just made history with a profit of more than $20 million thanks to his bet on Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election.
Trump whales and colossal gains
During the 2024 presidential election, a French trader who operates under several pseudonyms saw his stake turn into a fortune on Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized prediction market. Indeed, the biggest winner, identified under the pseudonyms “Theo4” and “Fredi9999”, earned more than $20 million thanks to his pro-Trump actions, according to data analyzed by the crypto firm Lookonchain and published this 6 november. Alongside him, investors like “zxgngl” also took advantage of this dynamic, with equally staggering gains.
Together, these Punters had injected over $70 million into USD Coin (USDC) to bolster Trump's chances on the platform.
Polymarket allowed these crypto whales to invest heavily in pro-Trump stocks, which inflated its odds as stakes increased. On a key date, October 18, Fredi9999's main account purchased over $20 million worth of Yes shares, pushing Trump's odds of victory to 60.2%. Ten days later, that probability jumped to 66% thanks to an additional $7.22 million investment from zxgngl. The whale concentration strategy has reached its peak with more than 50% of pro-Trump stocks in the hands of five anonymous bettors, indicating exceptional confidence in Trump's victory.
The Impact and concentration strategies on Polymarket
Pro-Trump actions were concentrated in five accounts, including “The Giga Whale.” These accounts owned almost half of the 162 million “Yes shares”. The most prominent investor, “The Giga Whale”, held almost a third of these shares, proof of the level of confidence placed in Trump's victory, well beyond the ordinary means of small bettors. For comparison, pro-Kamala Harris actions were much more dispersed, with an even distribution among investors.
Behind this concentration of bets lies a sophisticated financial strategy, which suggests that some of these bettors could be linked to each other, or even belong to the same group. For some investors, “at least four of the six largest pro-Trump bettors, including the zxgngl and Fredi9999 accounts, could be controlled by a single wealthy individual convinced of Trump's victory.” Such belief, amplified by the lack of strict regulation on decentralized prediction markets, gives these whales increased influence over Polymarket.
The success of these influential punters on Polymarket is not an individual achievement, but an example of the financial and political forecasting capabilities offered by decentralized markets. While traditional surveys have often proven uncertain, these platforms allow those willing to invest significant sums of money to influence market trends. At the same time, Trump's victory could well have implications for the crypto sector in the United States, as Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, notes:
On platforms like Polymarket, bets on Trump's victory have soared to an impressive 90%, despite the gap with traditional polling data. This reflects the strong commitment of BTC believers and the crypto community's anticipation of a pro-digital asset stance under Trump's potential leadership.
This scenario sheds more light on the growing power of crypto whales in political and financial decisions, and their impact on the future of decentralized finance.
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