XRP falls below 1 dollar, is the worst yet to come?

XRP fell back below a dollar for the first time since August, after losing nearly 38% since its October peak. More than a psychological threshold, this breakout modifies the structure of the market: each rebound towards a dollar can now encounter sellers wishing to break even.

The fall below 1 dollar weakens the entire structure of XRP

XRP is trading around $0.96 on November 14, after nine consecutive lower daily closes. Its decline reached around 14.5% over one week, while its price remained far from the peak of $1.60 reached in October.

The level of one dollar had served as a point of support during the summer recovery. Its rupture now reveals several determining areas:

• Between 0.95 and 1 dollar is the first demand zone;
• A break of $0.95 would expose the $0.90 threshold;
• An acceleration could bring XRP back towards $0.80;
• The return above a dollar would constitute a first sign of stabilization;
• The area between $1.20 and $1.25 remains the main resistance.

The one dollar threshold can now change functions. Investors who bought just above suffer a capital loss. If XRP rises towards their entry price, some may sell in order to recover their capital, which turns the former support into a supply zone.

The $0.80 target mentioned is therefore not a certain prediction. It represents the next major technical level if buyers do not defend $0.95. From $0.99, such a decline would correspond to an additional drop of around 19%.

Sellers keep control despite whale purchases

US XRP ETFs saw approximately $19.1 million in outflows between November 9 and 13. The largest withdrawal occurred on November 9, with $10.42 million, followed by $7.62 million the next day.

These amounts show a weakening of demand, but not a massive outflow of institutional investors. The products maintain approximately $1.71 billion in cumulative inflows since their launch. Recent withdrawals therefore represent a small fraction of the capital already collected.

The most worrying signal comes rather from the absence of purchases. ETFs have not seen any net entry sessions since October 29. This disruption removes a regular source of demand at a time when sellers dominate the spot market.

The drop in assets held by the funds does not come only from redemptions. When XRP declines, the dollar value of the tokens held mechanically decreases. We must therefore distinguish between investors who actually withdraw their money and the loss of valuation caused by the market.

This nuance prevents ETFs from being presented as the sole origin of the fall. They are no longer fueling the recovery, but their outflows remain too limited to explain, on their own, the drop of nearly 38% recorded since October.

Whales accumulate without regaining control of the price

The number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP reached 343,578, its highest level in a year. This progression suggests that some holders are taking advantage of the decline to strengthen their positions.

However, accumulation does not guarantee a rebound. An increase in the number of large portfolios does not indicate either their average purchase price or their capacity to absorb all available supply. It may also reflect a redistribution of tokens between several addresses rather than the arrival of new capital.

At the same time, derivative products maintain volatility. Around $16.9 million worth of XRP positions were liquidated during the decline, while open interest remained near $2.12 billion. As of November 14, nearly 97% of twenty-four-hour liquidations were in bullish positions.

The daily RSI has fallen to around 21.5, a level generally described as oversold. This indicator can favor a technical rebound, but it does not demonstrate that the bottom has been reached. An asset may remain oversold while its downtrend continues.

The real test will therefore not be a simple one-off return above a dollar. XRP will have to stay there, absorb the sales of stuck investors and gradually reconquer the zone of 1.20 to 1.25 dollars. As long as this sequence does not occur, the accumulation of whales will remain an encouraging signal, but insufficient to regain control of the market.