While the fourth quarter begins, the specter of a Shutdown in the United States worries the markets. If the congress fails to vote a budget extension by this midnight on Tuesday midnight, a large part of the federal administration will stop. This scenario would also disrupt the publication of the employment report, a capital indicator to anticipate the decisions of the Fed. In such a fragile context, the Crypto market, and in particular Bitcoin, is found on the front line in the face of a new period of uncertainty.
In short
- The American government risks a Shutdown if no budgetary agreement is found before this midnight on Tuesday.
- This blocking would suspend the publication of the employment report, an essential indicator for the Fed monetary policy.
- In the absence of reliable economic data, Bitcoin could experience an increase in short -term volatility.
- Analysts evoke increased fragility of the markets, nourished by political uncertainty and tensions on interest rates.
A report on employment employment
The American employment report, expected this Friday, crystallizes the attention of the markets, but it could simply not be published, due to the Shutdown which threatens Washington, in a context of decline in the dollar and the explosion of gold.
“The major event of this week could simply not take place: this Friday employment report would be the first weight victim of a possible government Shutdown, if the congress cannot adopt a temporary financing resolution by tomorrow evening, minuit”,, writing John Reid, responsible for macroeconomic research at Deutsche Bank.
This report, issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), constitutes a key indicator for the Fed in its decision -making on interest rates. Its possible suspension would thus place the markets in a strategic gray area, without immediate benchmark.
The non -essential nature of statistical functions within the American administration implies that BLS will have to suspend the publication of its reports until further notice. This suspension does not mean data loss, but a discrepancy that may be enough to destabilize the financial and crypto markets.
In the absence of clear signals, analysts anticipate a rise in volatility on bitcoin and risky assets. Bitunix also underlines that “Rate -lowering anticipations support risky assets, but bubble fears and political risks amplify short -term volatility. »».
According to them, this situation increases the fragility of the markets, by fueling “Movements marked by falls followed by rebounds”. Concretely, if the Shutdown should block the publication of the employment report, the immediate consequences would include:
- An emptiness on the health of the American labor market, a central element for the Fed policy;
- A total vagueness on interest rate expectations, while the market is counting on a monetary relaxation;
- Increased pressure on Bitcoin, active very sensitive to macroeconomic announcements, especially during periods of speculation.
The previous Shutdowns
Beyond the current emergency, this is not the first time that Bitcoin has faced a federal shutdown in the United States. The previous ones reveal contrasting dynamics, closely linked to the current market cycle.
In October 2013, a 16 -day Shutdown had coincided with a 14 % flight of the BTC, which increased from $ 132.04 to $ 151.34. Conversely, during the longest Shutdown in history, 35 days between December 2018 and January 2019, Bitcoin fell 6 %, from $ 3,802.22 to $ 3,575.85.
“The demand for bitcoin increased sharply as you approach the final phase of the Haussier cycle in 2013”recalls Julio Moreno, research manager at Cryptoquant. He specifies that in 2018, the situation was quite different, with a request “Draft during a lower market”.
Today, the analyst believes that the context is closer to that of 2013 than 2018. “The demand for Bitcoin is up at the entrance to the fourth quarter, a period generally favorable in terms of price performance”he advances.
In this context, the trajectory of Bitcoin is suspended at the end of the budgetary showdown in the United States as well as the evolution of the Fed monetary policy. If the request for the BTC continues to progress and the last quarter of the year is a carrier as usual, a new bullish phase remains possible.
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