The US Senate unanimously passed a resolution banning senators, their staff and House officials from betting on prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket. This decision comes after the indictment of an American soldier, accused of having used classified information linked to the operation targeting Nicolás Maduro to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Resolution 708 took effect immediately and now amends the Senate Rules.
In brief
- The US Senate now prohibits senators, their staff and House officials from betting on Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction markets.
- This resolution follows the case of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was accused of using classified information to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket.
- The measure aims above all to limit conflicts of interest and prevent the use of sensitive information in bets linked to politics, the economy or military operations.
- This ban remains an internal rule of the Senate, but it could pave the way for stricter supervision of prediction markets in the United States.
US Senate Passes Immediate Ban on Prediction Markets
The US Senate took a rare measure by its unanimity. In just one day, lawmakers approved a rule that bans betting on prediction markets by senators, legislative staff and House officials.
Republican Senator Bernie Moreno introduced the proposal. Then Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla expanded it to include Senate staff. So the US Senate not only limits elected officials, but also the people who work directly around them.
Bernie Moreno defended this measure recalling that senators must not participate in speculative activities while receiving a public salary:
U.S. senators do not have to engage in speculative activities like prediction markets while receiving a taxpayer-funded salary.
Bernie Moreno, Republican US Senator. Source: Cryptopolitan.
For his part, Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democratic minority in the Senate, supported the initiative. He warned that Congress should not become a space where public officials bet on wars, economic crises or political decisions.
This decision by the US Senate therefore aims to reduce conflicts of interest. It also seeks to prevent the use of sensitive information in bets linked to political, military or economic news.
Polymarket at the heart of the ban after a bet on the operation targeting Nicolás Maduro
The case leading up to the vote concerns Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old master sergeant in the US Special Forces. According to prosecutors, he used classified information to bet on Polymarket.
The bets were on Operation Absolute Resolve, linked to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3. The Justice Department said Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution of the operation.
Between December 27 and January 2, he placed approximately $33,034 on 13 bets. All concerned a possible deployment of American forces in Venezuela before January 31. These operations on Polymarket would have brought him approximately $409,881 in profits.
Van Dyke pleaded not guilty in federal court in Manhattan. He was released on $250,000 bail. However, this case has increased the authorities' attention on Polymarket and prediction markets in general.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed a parallel civil complaint. The agency considers this case its first action linked to insider trading in prediction markets. For regulators, Polymarket therefore illustrates a concrete risk when confidential information encounters markets with binary results.
A framework that is still limited, but expected to evolve
The ban passed by the US Senate remains an internal rule. It does not create a new criminal law. In the event of non-compliance, sanctions may include warnings, fines or loss of responsibilities within committees.
However, if an elected official or employee uses privileged information, existing federal laws may still apply. Prosecutors and regulators therefore retain the possibility of intervention. The American Senate acts here mainly in prevention, before other matters further weaken public trust.
Experts stress that prediction markets remain vulnerable. Of the university researchincluding those of Joshua Mitts, professor of law at Columbia University, and Moran Ofir, professor at the University of Haifa, have already mentioned more than 210,000 suspicious wallet-market pairs on Polymarket, with significant abnormal profits. This observation fuels concerns around informed betting.
Internationally, the situation remains unclear. Some countries treat these markets like gambling. Others compare them to financial instruments. This regulatory diversity leaves loopholes, particularly for Polymarket, Kalshi and similar platforms.
For the coming months, the American Senate could serve as a starting point for broader supervision. Prediction markets are not disappearing, but their use by public officials should be subject to stricter monitoring.
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