Bitcoin has been hitting an invisible wall for several weeks now. After brief visits to $79,500, the price of BTC systematically returns below $77,000. Behind this tenacious resistance, onchain data tells a precise story: that of organized sellers who are slowing down any surge. When will this blockage break? Analysis.
In brief
- Bitcoin has been hitting $77,000 for several days despite a peak at $79,500.
- 150,000 BTC sent to exchanges by short-term holders since April 15.
- Crypto market spot volumes at lowest since September 2023.
- Open interest down: around 8,000 to 9,000 BTC of leverage withdrawn in 10 days.
- $604 million in liquidations recorded in 24 hours on April 30.
Bitcoin under pressure: when short-term holders sabotage the rebound
Since April 15, 2026, around 150,000 BTC were transferred to cryptocurrency exchange platforms. This movement mainly comes from short-term holders (STH), wallets that have held their bitcoin for less than 155 days. These short-term holders act repeatedly each time the bitcoin price rebounds above $77,000.
The figures are also clear. On three consecutive sessionsshipments to crypto exchanges amount to:
- 65,000 BTC;
- 54,600 BTC;
- 39,000 BTC.
This cascading sales pressure prevents bitcoin from consolidating above key resistance of $80,000.
Crypto analyst Darkfost, whose work is based on CryptoQuant data, highlights this structural fragility. According to him, STHs seize the opportunity to make profits every time rise in the bitcoin market.
The result is mechanical:
- supply floods the exchanges;
- the price of bitcoin stagnates;
- buyers are backing off.
For Darkfost, this dynamic of repeated short-term profit taking in no way represents a signal of panic. Rather, it is a tactic that appears to be costly to BTC rally.
Bitcoin and the collapse of spot volumes: an apathetic market
Beyond STH, another signal concerns crypto analysts: the collapse of spot volumes. Trading activity on the crypto market has indeed dropped to levels comparable to September 2023a period which marked the end of a long bearish phase. Decryption: the bitcoin market is seriously lacking in liquidity.
Major crypto exchanges record massive declines:
- Binance lost around $25 billion in volume in the span of a month.
- Gate.io shows a decline of $13 billion.
- OKX sees its volumes drop by almost $6 billion.
These figures illustrate a net disengagement of short-term investors from bitcoin.
Darkfost summarizes this phenomenon as follows:
This contraction in volumes reflects a temporary loss of interest in bitcoin. But these phases of apathy are often where new opportunities begin to emerge.
This is precisely the paradox of current market sentiment. The drop in spot volumes can signal a lack of momentum, but also a phase of silent accumulation before an upcoming breakout.
Bitcoin and open interest at half mast: the levers are disengaged
On the derivatives markets side, the situation is not more reassuring for an immediate bitcoin rally. Open interest (i.e. the number of open future contracts on bitcoin) has indeed fallen from more than 300,000 BTC to around 292,000 BTC in recent days. Over ten days, it is between 8,000 and 9,000 BTC of leverage that was removed from the market.
Daily variations in open interest also remain negative. This means that traders are not committing to new long positions en masse. So that the bitcoin permanently crosses the $80,000 mark, However, new capital would have to enter the market, and not just forced closures of short positions.
The researcher Axel Adler Jr. note however an encouraging signal in the short term : the seven-day oscillator on liquidations moved into positive territory, reaching +28.7 on April 30. This indicates more balanced liquidation pressure between long and short positions.
In 24 hours, total liquidations in the cryptocurrency market reached $604 million. This figure testifies to the persistent volatility around this resistance zone. However, the 30-day average remains slightly negative. Which maintains an overall bias favorable to previous long liquidations.
One thing is therefore certain: bitcoin is going through a zone of technical and psychological turbulence. The resistance at $77,000–80,000 concentrates the sales of short-term holders and the indifference of institutional buyers. In the longer term, these compression phases often precede major movements, both upwards and downwards. The next major trend in bitcoin is taking shape behind the scenes. To be continued…
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