The IMF warns of the global impact of dollar stablecoins

The International Monetary Fund comes out of its usual reserve and publishes a detailed guide to stablecoins. As the market exceeds $300 billion, the institution believes that regulation alone will not be enough. What strategy does she really recommend?

The IMF fears financial instability caused by stablecoins

The IMF just released its “Understanding Stablecoins” report on Thursday, an in-depth analysis that scrutinizes the regulatory approaches of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and the European Union. The observation is clear: each jurisdiction advances its pawns, but no one plays the same game.

The Washington institution points to a major risk. The proliferation of stablecoins on different blockchains creates “inefficiencies due to a potential lack of interoperability”. The system becomes an unmanageable patchwork where regulatory disparities between countries create barriers to transactions.

The two giants of the sector illustrate this fragmentation. Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC dominate the market with distinct reserve strategies. Tether maintains approximately 75% of its collateral in short-term U.S. Treasuries, supplemented by repurchase transactions and bank deposits.

Circle maintains 40% of its reserves in these same government securities. Disturbing detail: Tether also holds 5% of its assets in bitcoin, a diversification which questions the very stability of the concept of “stablecoin”.

In the United States, the GENIUS law signed by Donald Trump in July redistributed the cards. This regulation imposes a strict framework for payment stablecoins. According to the audit carried out by CertiK, it caused a notable separation of liquidity between American and European pools. A balkanization which perfectly illustrates the fears of the IMF.

Beyond regulation, a question of systemic resilience

The IMF's message contrasts with the usual speeches focused solely on the legal framework. The institution states that “robust macroeconomic policies and robust institutions should be the first line of defense.”

In other words: regulating is not enough, we must strengthen the foundations of the financial system itself.

This vision takes on its full meaning when we observe recent market developments. Some analysts, like the Fed's Stephen Miran, estimate that stablecoins could be worth $3 trillion by 2030.

A prospect which could force the Federal Reserve to review its monetary policy, in particular its neutral interest rate. The growing demand for these dollar-backed assets is literally sucking up US Treasuries.

The IMF also emphasizes “international coordination” as an essential element in resolving these challenges. A coordination that is sorely lacking today. While Europe rolls out its MiCA regulation, the United States refines the GENIUS Act, and Asia experiments with its own models.

The overwhelming dominance of the dollar in the stablecoin universe – more than 99% of the market – raises another question. These stable cryptos become vectors of dollarization for emerging economies, bypassing traditional banking circuits. A phenomenon which could weaken the transmission of monetary policies and modify global macroeconomic balances.

The IMF is no longer content with observing: it is sounding the alarm on regulatory fragmentation. His message is clear: without international coordination and without strengthening macroeconomic frameworks, stablecoins risk becoming a factor of instability rather than a controlled financial innovation. The ball is now in the court of global regulators.