Stock market: dollar hanging by a thread before US figures

The calm before the storm. That’s how one might describe the attitude of global markets at the start of the week. Stock markets around the world are oscillating, while the dollar seems firmly anchored. But for how much longer? As investors eagerly await crucial economic data from the United States, tensions are rising. Any single figure could well trigger a chain reaction in the markets.

Markets on hold: Dollar under pressure

Global stock markets are in a waiting mode. Investors have their eyes fixed on the United States, where two key indicators are about to be released: the ISM survey on manufacturing activity and nonfarm payrolls data.

These figures are essential for assessing the health of the American economy and anticipating the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming monetary policy decisions.

For now, global stocks remain flat, just below their record highs. The dollar, meanwhile, remains elevated, near a two-week high.

Traders are cautious, anticipating a possible interest rate cut by the Fed. But how many basis points will actually be cut? A 25 or 50 point cut? The answer may well depend on the data released this week.

Investor caution is palpable. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have edged lower, a sign of growing nervousness in bond markets.

U.S. stock futures are down slightly, reflecting the prevailing uncertainty. In Europe, the index STOXX 600 follows the same path, with relative stability.

Yen strong, oil under pressure

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is strengthening against the dollar, benefiting from speculation about a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

This dynamic contrasts with the situation in the United States, where a rate cut is increasingly being considered. The yen, traditionally seen as a safe haven, is attracting investors seeking security in the face of growing uncertainty.

At the same time, the oil market is experiencing a downturn. After a sharp rise in August, crude prices are once again under pressure, weighed down by persistent concerns about global demand.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Libya, have not been enough to sustainably support oil prices, which are struggling to return to their previous levels.

Gold, meanwhile, continues to play its role as a safe haven, with a progression that keeps it at high levels. However, volatility remains high, and everything will depend on how investors react to the upcoming US data.

Financial markets are at a turning point. The stock market is on tiptoe, watching every move of the dollar, whose resistance will be tested by the American economic data.

So investors are advised to tread carefully. While the world eagerly awaits these key indicators, an old line of code from Satoshi Nakamoto could be a game changer for bitcoin.