XRP: Between bullish signal and risk of historical correction

The price of the crypto XRP gained almost 70% before its weekly Super Trend turned green on August 17. This signal remains positive, however its three previous appearances preceded corrections of between 32% and 56%.

XRP price replicates three old bearish signals

From its low near $0.98, XRP has rebounded to near $1.70. However, he failed to keep his winnings. It was currently progressing around $1.38.

Ripple’s crypto now finds itself between two crucial moving averages. Thus, the 20-week EMA stands around $1.29 to $1.30, while the 50-week EMA forms resistance near $1.52. The price therefore only has a narrow margin before testing one of these thresholds.

ChartNerd analyst has presented a history which reveals three comparable precedents:

• In 2019, the Super Trend’s turn to green during the bear market preceded a 56% correction;
• After the bottom of the 2020 cycle, a new bullish signal was followed by a 32% decline;
• In 2022, XRP had rallied around 90% before meeting the 50-week EMA and then losing 45%.

ChartNerd explains: “Bullish Super Trends generally mark local highs”. The analyst indicates, however, that these precedents do not guarantee a further fall. Three observations are not enough to establish a reliable statistical rule.

The signal must also be placed in context. Thus, the Super Trend follows the direction of the market based on past prices and volatility. It can therefore belatedly confirm an increase that is already well underway, without itself triggering the reversal that follows.

XRP must cross 1.52 then 1.90 dollars

ChartNerd described the current scenario as a squeeze phase. He indicated:

As long as we stay below the 50 week average and above the 20 week average, we are simply in compression.

From $1.38, XRP must gain nearly 10% to reach the 50-week EMA located at $1.52. A fall towards $1.30 would, on the contrary, constitute a decline close to 6%. These two thresholds therefore delimit the immediate area to be monitored.

A move beyond $1.52 may not be enough to completely invalidate the cautious scenario. Therefore, the analyst positions the real structural modification around $1.90. XRP would have to move almost 38% from $1.38 to get close to this level.

A weekly close above the area between $1.50 and $1.90 would solidify the possibility of a return to previous highs. Without such confirmation, a one-time crossing of the 50-week EMA would simply prolong the hesitation phase.

Also, the general context does not yet help XRP to free itself from this configuration. Over 24 hours, the token had suffered a loss of almost 4%. However, it increased by 1.5% over seven days. Its price also remained more than 53% below its level a year earlier and 62% below its record of $3.65 set in July 2025.

XRP’s recent movements largely followed those of bitcoin, which fluctuated between $77,600 and $80,000. This correlation reduces the scope of only technical signals specific to the token. A further fall in the crypto market would thus accelerate a decline towards the 20-week EMA.

However, activity on derivatives has increased. In August, XRP futures volumes exceeded $64 billion across the three major platforms, their best result in six months. Such an increase indicates renewed interest, however it can also amplify movements if positions use significant leverage.

Spot XRP ETFs also continue to attract capital. After more than $110 million collected last week, their weekly inflows nevertheless slowed below $19 million. They were close to $13.83 million since the start of this week.

XRP therefore remains caught between positive institutional flows and a recurring technical warning. A break below $1.29 would consolidate the risk of correction. Conversely, a lasting crossing of $1.90 could significantly weaken the comparison with previous cycles.